Paris: French voters worldwide are currently participating in the first round of a pivotal parliamentary election, poised to potentially place France's government under nationalist, far-right leadership for the first time since the Nazi era.

The outcome of this two-round election, concluding on July 7, holds significant implications for European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine, the management of France's nuclear arsenal, and global military influence.

Frustration over inflation, economic worries, and discontent with President Emmanuel Macron's perceived aloof leadership have galvanised support for Marine Le Pen's anti-immigration National Rally party. Utilising platforms such as TikTok, Le Pen's party has dominated pre-election polls.

Challenging Macron's centrist coalition, the newly formed left-wing New Popular Front has emerged as a formidable contender.

Following a campaign marred by rising hate speech, voting commenced early in France's overseas territories, with mainland polling stations opening at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) on Sunday. Initial projections are expected at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) when polling concludes, with preliminary results anticipated later in the night.

Macron called for early elections after his party's significant setback in the European Parliament elections earlier in June, where they were surpassed by the National Rally, a party historically linked with racism and antisemitism and critical of France's Muslim community. The move was a bold gamble to mobilise voters who were apathetic in the European elections to support moderate forces in a national context and prevent a far-right victory.

However, current polls indicate growing support for the National Rally, raising the prospect of them securing a parliamentary majority. In such a scenario, Macron may be compelled to appoint 28-year-old National Rally President Jordan Bardella as prime minister, necessitating a challenging power-sharing arrangement known as "cohabitation."

While Macron has vowed not to resign before his presidential term expires in 2027, cohabitation would weaken his domestic and international standing.

The first-round results will offer insight into voter sentiment, though they may not determine the final composition of the National Assembly. Predictions remain uncertain due to the complex voting system and the potential for strategic alliances or withdrawals between the two rounds.

Historically, such tactical moves have prevented far-right victories. However, the broadening support base for Le Pen's party suggests a shifting landscape.

Bardella, despite lacking governing experience, has expressed intentions to use the prime ministerial powers to halt Macron's supply of long-range weaponry to Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia, citing historical ties between his party and Russia.

Additionally, the National Rally has raised questions about birthright citizenship in France and proposed restrictions on dual-nationality citizens, criticisms that highlight concerns over human rights and France's democratic principles.

Meanwhile, ambitious spending pledges from both the National Rally and the left-wing coalition have unsettled markets and raised alarms about France's substantial debt, already under scrutiny from EU oversight bodies. AP