French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to appoint a new prime minister after parliament voted to oust Francois Bayrou and his government, rather than risk early elections or resigning himself.

Bayrou is expected to submit his resignation on Tuesday morning, with Macron set to name his successor in the coming days, according to the presidency. But with parliament refusing to give Bayrou its confidence after only nine months in office, questions remain over whether the next prime minister can survive until the end of Macron’s mandate in 2027.

Who could Macron choose as prime minister?

A person close to Macron, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the president’s inclination was to appoint a long-serving cabinet minister he trusts, such as Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin or Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu.

“In the end he will stay within his comfort zone,” added an ex-minister.

Both Darmanin and Lecornu, however, may be seen as too right wing to be acceptable to the left. With a pact with the Socialist Party (PS) considered a possible solution, another option could be Health Minister Catherine Vautrin, who has repeatedly been cited as a potential candidate in the past.

Could there be a compromise candidate?

Another possibility is for Macron to turn to a figure aligned with the left but not tied directly to the Socialist Party, while still acceptable to his centrist bloc.

Names mentioned include Raphael Glucksmann, leader of a progressive left-wing movement, and Bernard Cazeneuve, a former prime minister and one-time Socialist Party member.

Also seen as a contender is Finance Minister Eric Lombard, a former banking executive who previously belonged to the Socialist Party.

As one source close to Macron explained, “The issue is no longer who he (Macron) wants to install in the Matignon (residence and office of the French premier) but who can maintain such a difficult balance.”

Is cohabitation an option?

Macron may also attempt what in France is called “cohabitation”, when a president works with a prime minister from an opposing party.

The most obvious candidate would be Socialist leader Olivier Faure, who has openly expressed his interest in the role. But this scenario could still leave the government vulnerable to the right, as no party holds a clear majority in the hung parliament.

Analysts at the Eurasia Group predicted Macron would likely seek an arrangement with the Socialists through his new premier, “There is a 60 percent probability that the new PM will muddle through to a budget deal by the end of this year or by the early new year.”

What about elections?

Speculation had mounted that Macron might call snap legislative elections following Bayrou’s removal, but the presidency has already confirmed that he will appoint a new premier instead.

If the incoming prime minister, who will be the seventh of Macron’s mandate, is also toppled, pressure could grow for new polls.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen argued that in such a case, Calling the polls is “not an option but an obligation” for Macron.

Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted in a no-confidence vote last December. According to Eurasia Group, “If a third PM falls within a year, Macron will have little choice but to call a new legislative election.”

Meanwhile, far-left former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon urged Macron to quit altogether: On Monday he called on Macron to “go as well himself.”

But the president has made clear his determination to remain in office until 2027.

(AFP inputs)