India's ability to navigate an increasingly fragmented global order will depend on how quickly it strengthens self-reliance in energy, defence, technology and domestic production, former Ambassador to the United States Navtej Sarna said at the Morningstar Investment Conference India 2026.

Speaking during a fireside chat titled 'The World in Disarray: India’s Priorities and Challenges', Sarna said the international environment was moving away from a relatively predictable order towards one marked by conflict, strategic rivalry and intensified competition.

Tariffs, sanctions and disruptions to global supply chains are becoming increasingly important for economies and investors, he said, adding that India would need to balance relationships with major powers while keeping its national interests at the centre of its foreign policy.

The Morningstar conference focused on the effects of geopolitical uncertainty, technological disruption and changing global supply chains on investment decisions and markets.

Energy dependence a key vulnerability

Sarna identified India's dependence on imported energy as one of the country’s major strategic vulnerabilities. He pointed to imports of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas, while noting that parts of India’s renewable-energy ecosystem also remain dependent on overseas supplies.

Even the manufacture of some renewable-energy components, including silicon wafers, relies on imports from China, he said.

The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and other maritime choke points has highlighted the importance of securing energy routes, according to Sarna. India must diversify its sources of energy and strengthen domestic capabilities to reduce the risks posed by external disruptions.

"Unless we can manage to find new sources, energy is going to be a restraint on everything that we try to do," Sarna said.

India cannot rely only on China-plus-one strategy

Sarna also cautioned against viewing India as the only beneficiary of the China-plus-one strategy, under which companies seek to diversify production beyond China.

Although India has gained from supply-chain diversification, it faces growing competition from Southeast Asian countries and Mexico, he said. At the same time, several inputs used by Indian industries continue to originate in China.

India will therefore need to diversify its supply chains and expand domestic production, Sarna said. Without stronger local capabilities, the country’s manufacturing growth could eventually face a ceiling.

Defence requires technology partnerships

India’s defence sector is undergoing a similar transition, Sarna said.

The country has reduced its traditional dependence on Russia by expanding defence ties with the United States, Israel and France. At the same time, local production and co-production capabilities have begun to develop.

However, building greater domestic defence capability will require access to advanced technologies, foreign investment and international partnerships, he said.

Strategic autonomy, Sarna suggested, should not be understood as isolation but as the ability to work with different partners while retaining freedom of decision-making.

Technology emerges as strategic fault line

Technology is becoming another major area of strategic competition, according to Sarna.

India is operating between two competing technology ecosystems, centred largely around China and the United States. This makes access to technology, the development of domestic capabilities and the creation of diversified partnerships increasingly important for the country’s economic and strategic resilience.

The issue extends beyond consumer technology to areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, telecommunications, cyber capabilities, defence systems and critical infrastructure.

For investors, Sarna’s message was to look beyond immediate geopolitical headlines and focus on the structural changes reshaping industries, supply chains and capital allocation.

As India seeks to broaden its external relationships, its long-term resilience will depend on its ability to build domestic capacity while developing partnerships in energy, technology, trade and defence, he said.

The conference’s wider discussions examined India’s role in global finance, changing geopolitical conditions, artificial intelligence, international markets, policy shifts and the outlook for Indian equities.