Perambra (Kerala): Known as a traditional left bastion since 1980, the Perambra assembly constituency in Kerala is witnessing a notable shift in political dynamics. Long regarded by the CPM as a “safe seat,” recent election results suggest growing momentum for the United Democratic Front (UDF), raising hopes of a breakthrough in upcoming polls.

Perambra, located in Kerala’s agriculturally rich hilly terrain, has a history of intense political contests and farmer-led struggles for land rights. While CPM has historically dominated the area, the UDF has made significant inroads, particularly in recent Lok Sabha and local body elections.

UDF gains ground in local elections

In the last Lok Sabha election, UDF candidate Shafi Parambil secured a lead of 19,085 votes within Perambra. This trend continued in local body polls, where UDF recorded an advantage of over 8,000 votes across several panchayats. Panchayats traditionally held by the LDF shifted to UDF control, including Chakkittapara, Changaroth, Koothali, Perambra, Cheruvannur, and Thurayur. LDF retained only Nochad, Meppayur, Arikkulam, and Keezhariyur.

For the first time in decades, UDF also claimed control of the Perambra Block Panchayat, signalling a broader shift in voter sentiment. Analysts point to these developments as an indication of UDF’s rising prospects in the constituency.

Historical context: LDF’s established dominance

Despite UDF’s recent gains, the LDF retains a strong base in Perambra. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, UDF made a notable advance, yet the LDF won the legislative assembly with a decisive margin. K Muraleedharan, representing UDF in the 2019 Lok Sabha race, had a lead of 13,204 votes in Perambra, demonstrating a competitive political environment.

The LDF continues to leverage the experience of veteran leader and former minister T P Ramakrishnan, contesting for the fourth term in the constituency. His longstanding engagement with local governance and trade union activities remains a significant factor in the LDF’s strategy.

Also Read| ‘Shall we have a debate?’ LDF report card gives Kerala govt full A+ grade for 10-year tenure

UDF fields new faces

UDF has positioned youth leader Fathima Thahiliya, a former Kerala Youth League state secretary and successful Kozhikode Corporation councillor, as its candidate. By highlighting new-generation leadership, UDF aims to attract younger voters while challenging the LDF’s experienced candidates.

Meanwhile, the NDA has nominated M Mohanan, Kozhikode BJP district secretary, emphasising regional development and infrastructural achievements as their campaign focus. However, both UDF and NDA are also highlighting unfulfilled local projects to appeal to voters.

Electoral history: Limited UDF success

Since its formation, Perambra has witnessed UDF victories only twice. Historically, the constituency has alternated between CPM and Congress-affiliated candidates. Notable past representatives include V V Dakshinamurthy (CPM), A K Padmanabhan (CPM), N K Radha (CPM), and T P Ramakrishnan (CPM).

Kerala Congress (Mani) has traditionally contested the seat under the UDF banner, with the Muslim League also contesting after Kerala Congress shifted to the LDF. In recent elections, T P Ramakrishnan of the LDF secured 4,101 votes in 2016, expanding to a 22,592-vote margin in the latest polls.

What to watch in upcoming elections

The upcoming polls in Perambra are shaping up to be fiercely contested, with both alliances deploying a mix of experience and fresh faces. While LDF continues to bank on TP Ramakrishnan’s leadership and voter loyalty, UDF is riding a wave of recent local victories and youth representation. Analysts predict a high-stakes contest in this traditionally left-leaning constituency.