Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is bracing for an intense spell of pre-monsoon weather as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a Yellow Alert for six districts on Thursday, May 14. The state is currently under the influence of a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, which has gained major strength over the last 24 hours. This system is acting as a catalyst for the early progression of the Southwest Monsoon, which is now expected to advance into the South Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea by May 16.

Districts on high alert

The Meteorological Department has identified several districts where heavy rainfall, ranging from 7 cm to 11 cm, is likely at isolated places. For Thursday, May 14, the yellow alert remains active in Idukki, Ernakulam, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragod.

By Friday, May 15, the focus of the intense showers is expected to shift, with alerts issued for Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod. Authorities have warned that these heavy spells could lead to temporary waterlogging in low-lying areas and traffic disruptions in urban centres.

Thunderstorms and wind warning

The current atmospheric conditions are not just bringing rain, the IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds across the state. Wind speeds are expected to reach 30–50 kmph, particularly in coastal and hilly regions. This weather pattern is predicted to persist for the next five days, extending to Mahe as well.

Monsoon onset and cyclonic circulation

The well-marked low-pressure area, currently situated over the Southwest and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal, is supported by a cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. This system is driving the cross-equatorial flow required for the monsoon's arrival. While the monsoon typically reaches the Andaman Sea around May 20, the 2026 season is showing an accelerated pace, with a projected arrival date of May 16. For the Kerala mainland, current indicators point towards an official onset as early as May 25 to May 27.