When the Kalpathy Ratholsavam approaches, the wind in Palakkad begins to blow. This signals the weakening of the rain in the month of Thulam (according to the Malayalam calendar). The Ratholsavam takes place in the last three days of the month of Thulam. As the wind picks up, the people of Kalpathy remark, "Theru kaattu vanthach" (The wind of the chariot has come). The wind, which travels to Palakkad through the ghats, is also crucial for the agrarian sector of the district. It is the time when tamarind and mangoes bloom, and the strong winds help the fruits ripen well. This year, the wind has arrived in Palakkad amidst the election, carrying with it the smoke of controversies.

The election was initially scheduled for the first day of the Ratholsavam in Kalpathy. However, following complaints from voters in Kalpathy and surrounding areas about the difficulties they would face, the election was postponed to the 20th, which brought some relief to political workers. With an additional week for campaigning, the intensity of the competition has only increased. Now, anticipation and curiosity grow as everyone waits to see who will sail through the wind of Palakkad and who will falter in it.

One thing is certain: the repercussions of the Palakkad by-election will reverberate in state politics even after the election. The campaign has been vibrant until now, with controversies continuing to dominate the headlines daily. Not a single day has passed without stirring political circles, making this one of the most heatedly contested by-elections in the state’s history.

The Palakkad Legislative Assembly constituency includes the Palakkad Municipal Corporation, the Pirayiri and Kannadi Panchayats in Palakkad taluk, and the Mathur Gram Panchayat in Alathur taluk. The constituency has a total of 1,94,706 voters, with women making up the majority. The voter breakdown is 1,00,290 women, 94,412 men, and four transgender individuals, according to the election statistics.

First By-election in Palakkad

The Palakkad constituency has been a part of Kerala's legislative assembly elections since its inception in 1957. This is the first time the constituency is facing a by-election. In the 2021 Kerala Legislative Assembly elections, Shafi Parambil won, but he resigned from his legislative membership after winning the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Vadakara. This led to the by-election in the constituency.

C.M. Sundara from Kalpathy, who represented Palakkad for 16 consecutive years in the state legislative assembly, holds the record for the longest tenure in the Kerala Assembly. Since 2011, Shafi Parambil has won in three elections. While the constituency has traditionally leaned towards the UDF, the BJP has taken control of the Palakkad Municipal Corporation in the last two elections. Areas like Kannadi and Mathur are strongholds of the CPI(M), while the UDF has the upper hand in Pirayiri. In the last two legislative elections, the NDA secured the second position in the Palakkad constituency, while the LDF came third.

In the previous election, the BJP and NDA worked hard to ensure victory by bringing in "Metro Man" E. Sreedharan to gather cross-sectional votes, making the contest intense. Shafi Parambil secured a hat-trick victory with a reduced margin of 3,859 votes. After the victory, the BJP raised the allegation that LDF votes were behind Shafi's success. In response, Shafi Parambil countered the allegation by stating that many LDF supporters might have also voted for him.

Even before the conclusion of the Lok Sabha elections, rumors about the Congress candidate had started circulating. It was suggested that Shafi Parambil had recommended the name of Rahul Mankoottil, the President of the Youth Congress in the state. Although names of senior leaders like K. Muraleedharan were also mentioned, the Congress leadership ultimately nominated Rahul Mamkoottil. Within hours of the election announcement, Rahul Mamkoottil's candidacy was confirmed, and both Congress and the UDF came forward. However, twists in the story were yet to come.

Protest Over Candidate Selection

The first to raise opposition to the candidate declaration was Dr. P. Sarin, the Congress candidate from Ottapalam in the last assembly elections and the Coordinator of the Congress Social Media Cell. After Dr. Sarin clarified her stance, she became an independent candidate supported by the LDF. Following this, Youth Congress leader A.K. Shanib also left the party. Amid the growing controversy over the ‘deal’ raised by Sarin against Congress, a letter surfaced which reportedly had been sent by the District Congress Committee to the state leadership, urging the nomination of K. Muraleedharan as the candidate. Once the UDF brought K. Muraleedharan in to campaign for Rahul, the controversy surrounding the letter was largely diffused.

At this time, a controversy erupted in a hotel in Palakkad, where both leaders and journalists were staying, regarding a blue trolley bag allegedly containing money meant for the UDF candidate. The police arrived for a midnight inspection at the hotel, leading to a tense standoff outside. After the dramatic scenes unfolded, it was the police who lost face. The police inspection occurred in a room where female leaders were staying, and initially, no female officers were present. Congress leader Shanimol Usman raised a protest, demanding that her room not be inspected without the presence of a female officer. The police had to bow to her demand. Later, they conducted the inspection in her room with a female officer present. Following the protest and pressure from Congress leaders, the police issued a letter stating that they had found nothing in the rooms, which embarrassed the police force. The controversy is certain to create further waves in political circles after the election.

The Long Wait for the LDF Candidate

Although the name of District Panchayat President K. Binumol was floated as the likely candidate from the LDF, the announcement was delayed for several days, leading to speculation. During this period, Dr. Sarin, who walked out of the UDF in protest against the autocratic ways of Shafi Parambil, became an independent candidate, supported by the LDF.

In the days that followed, allegations about bogus votes emerged. Both Congress and BJP accused several people of illegally adding votes. Dr. Sarin, who had been a voter in Ottapalam in the previous Lok Sabha elections, was now accused by the UDF of colluding with the BJP, which controls the Palakkad Municipal Corporation, to transfer his vote to Palakkad.

Meanwhile, Sandeep Varier, a BJP state committee member, joining the Congress camp marked the latest development in the Palakkad election scene. How ordinary voters would perceive these developments remains to be seen.

2021 Election Vote Shares

  • UDF: Shafi Parambil – 54,079
  • NDA: E. Sreedharan – 50,220
  • LDF: C.P. Promod – 36,433

All Three Fronts Are Wary of Dissatisfaction Among the Rank and File

The rising controversies in Palakkad suggest that the three-way contest will be intensely competitive. Initially, dissatisfaction over the candidate selection in the UDF took center stage. This was followed by internal issues within the Left Front. The opposition raised by Abdul Shukkoor, a former municipal councilor and area committee member of the CPI(M), along with the subsequent interventions and responses from leaders, escalated the situation. In the BJP, a faction initially expressed dissatisfaction, but the leadership later attempted to bring them into line. During this period, unexpectedly, Sandeep Varier’s protest came to light. While BJP leadership claims it to be irrelevant, it remains to be seen how significant this dissent will be. Given the narrow margin in the last election, dissatisfaction and the moves of such factions could prove decisive for everyone involved. Compared to previous elections, all three fronts have prioritized door-to-door campaigning.

Beyond Controversies, Development Also Gains Attention

Beyond the controversies, in the final days of the election, development in the constituency has become a key topic of discussion. The LDF’s campaign has been highlighting the stagnation in development. However, the UDF has been steering its campaign by pointing to achievements, such as the medical college, without making excessive claims. The NDA is facing voters with a development record, detailing the work done by the candidate when he served as the Vice Chairman of the Palakkad Municipal Corporation. Apart from the main alliance candidates, seven others are also in the fray. Among them, two are named Rahul. Election managers are carefully watching the political shifts that create undercurrents and influence the overall atmosphere.