Kolkata: Opinion polls conducted by Ananda Bazar Patrika (ABP) and CNN-News18 project the TMC winning around 161 of the 294 seats, with the BJP taking 124, the Congress 9, and the CPI(M) none in the West Bengal Assembly Election 2026.

While the projections give the TMC a statewide advantage, state sources said the contest in Kolkata, the ‘City of Joy’, is expected to be significantly tighter, with urban voting patterns likely to play a decisive role.

The vote share gap remains narrow, with the TMC projected at around 43% and the BJP close behind at 40%, indicating a competitive electoral landscape.

State sources said this tight margin is most visible in urban constituencies such as Kolkata, Salt Lake, and parts of Howrah, where shifting voter preferences could influence outcomes.

Kolkata turns into key urban battleground

State sources said Kolkata has emerged as one of the most critical battlegrounds in the 2026 Assembly elections, with both the TMC and BJP investing heavily in urban outreach, candidate selection, and booth-level mobilisation.

The TMC continues to enjoy structural advantages in the city, driven by its strong organisational network and welfare-centric governance model.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee remains the party’s central figure, with consistent approval ratings and a strong connection among women voters, minorities, and economically weaker sections.

Welfare schemes such as Lakshmir Bhandar, Kanyashree, and Rupashree have played a significant role in shaping voter sentiment in Kolkata.

State sources indicated that women voters, in particular, have emerged as a decisive constituency, with many households directly benefiting from cash support and social welfare initiatives.

Crucially, these two opinion poll insights suggest that Muslim voters are likely to consolidate in favour of the TMC, especially in urban constituencies where their presence can influence electoral outcomes.

With Muslims constituting around 27% of West Bengal’s population, their voting preference remains a key determinant in closely contested seats.

State sources said the TMC’s positioning as a party that balances welfare delivery with a broader narrative of social harmony continues to resonate with minority communities in Kolkata.

At the same time, there are signs of fatigue after 15 years in power. Urban voters have raised concerns over employment opportunities, civic infrastructure, and governance challenges, which could impact margins in closely fought constituencies.

BJP sharpens strategy, key issues dominate narrative

The BJP, backed by national leadership including Union Home Minister Amit Shah, has significantly expanded its focus on Kolkata, aiming to convert urban dissatisfaction into electoral gains.

The party’s campaign has centred on issues such as alleged illegal migration from Bangladesh, identity politics, governance concerns, and voter list revisions. Party insiders said Kolkata is central to the BJP’s strategy to make deeper inroads into West Bengal’s political landscape.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls conducted ahead of the elections has emerged as a major point of contention. 

The poll panel reported a fresh enrolment of nearly 5 lakh voters after the final electoral roll was published on February 28, taking West Bengal’s total electorate to around 6.8 crore. This reflects a 10.9% decline, or about 83.8 lakh voters, compared to the pre-SIR strength of over 7.6 crore.

Officials indicated that the voter count could rise further once names cleared by 19 tribunals, set up on directions of the Supreme Court to hear appeals against deletions during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), are added back to the rolls.

At present, the electorate for the first phase of polling stands at approximately 3.6 crore voters.

Despite the BJP’s growing presence in Kolkata, particularly among sections of the educated middle class, analysts point to a potential gap between campaign messaging and voter priorities.

State sources noted that younger voters in urban areas are more focused on jobs, economic growth, and opportunities, areas where both parties face scrutiny.

Verdict hinges on turnout and urban swing

The ABP-CNN-News18 opinion poll indicates that while the TMC holds an advantage in Kolkata, the BJP’s steady gains have made the city far more competitive than in previous elections.

State sources emphasised that Kolkata is unlikely to deliver a one-sided verdict, with several constituencies expected to witness close contests. Factors such as turnout, candidate selection, and last-mile campaigning are expected to play a decisive role.

The consolidation of Muslim voters towards the TMC, combined with strong support among women beneficiaries of welfare schemes, could provide the ruling party with a critical edge in tight races.

However, the BJP’s ability to mobilise urban voters around governance and identity issues means the outcome remains open.

Kolkata will reflect the broader political contest in the state on April 29, a battle between continuity and change, welfare and governance, and competing narratives of identity and development.