Chennai: The 6 October by-elections across two Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu will serve as the crucial initial electoral test for Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay’s three-month-old Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government.

The high-stakes campaign in Madurantakam and Dharapuram presents a political test as to whether former AIADMK legislators who defected to the TVK shortly after April's election results will receive party nominations or if the TVK will field long-standing party loyalists.

The Election Commission of India ordered the by-polls following the resignations of Maragatham Kumaravel and P Sathyabama from their respective seats. Both former lawmakers joined the TVK on the same day they submitted their resignation letters to Assembly Speaker J C D Prabhakar, formalising their departure from the AIADMK.

Whilst Tamil Nadu political tradition typically accords incumbent governing parties a distinct advantage during by-elections, the TVK enters the race confronting coalition friction, aggressive opposition resistance, and tight legislative arithmetic.

Operating as a post-election coalition after falling short of an absolute majority in the Assembly in May 2026, the TVK established a government backed by the Congress, VCK, IUML, and Left parties. Cross-voting by 22 AIADMK rebel lawmakers assisted the Vijay-led administration in securing 144 votes during its confidence motion, comfortably clearing the floor test.

Currently controlling 107 seats in the 234-member Assembly, the TVK remains reliant on external coalition partners to stay above the 118-seat threshold required for a simple majority.

The TVK is managing internal strains with the Congress party, which has threatened to re-evaluate its cabinet participation unless party leader Rahul Gandhi is accepted as the alliance's prime ministerial candidate for 2029, amid calls within the TVK promoting Vijay for the top post.

Meanwhile, the CPI has organised public demonstrations against rising inflation.

For the opposition AIADMK, the contest represents a personal battle to reclaim constituencies lost through high-profile defections. Concurrently, the DMK is aiming to exploit early administrative vulnerabilities to stall the TVK's expansion.

Winning both constituencies is numerically vital for the TVK to reinforce its parliamentary standing and cushion itself against potential coalition volatility.

The two seats are among seven current vacancies in the state legislature. By-elections have not yet been called for Tiruchirappalli East, relinquished by Vijay, alongside Ambasamudram, Viralimalai, Perundurai, and Karur, which were vacated following AIADMK resignations.

The formal election notification triggered the immediate enforcement of the Model Code of Conduct in Madurantakam and Dharapuram.

Under the Election Commission's timetable, candidates may file nominations from 9 September to 16 September, with scrutiny scheduled for 17 September and the deadline for withdrawal set for 19 September. Following voting on 6 October, vote counting will take place on 9 October.

PTI