Top psephologist Pradeep Gupta believes the Bharatiya Janata Party could remain the dominant force in Indian politics for years to come, possibly for two decades, as long as its governance record does not suffer a major decline.

Speaking to the PTI, the pollster offered a striking assessment of contemporary political cycles, comparing the BJP’s current moment to the extended period of control once enjoyed by the Congress.

According to Gupta, whose exit polls with Axis My India have correctly anticipated several tight elections, Indian politics appears to be entering a new era of “one-party predominance”.

He estimated that the phase of political consolidation that began in 2014 could last “at least 20 years”, as long as the ruling party avoids a sharp fall in its performance.

He added that India’s political history shows a “threshold in politics”, noting, “earlier, Congress ruled continuously till 1977. After that, it started facing difficulties… That 20-year cycle will remain even now."

Performance will decide BJP’s future

Gupta emphasised that after securing a large mandate, the BJP and its alliance must now deliver exceptional governance.

"After receiving such a massive mandate, expectations from the BJP have also increased. So the BJP and the NDA will now have to super perform," he said.

He argued that electoral success is likely to continue as long as performance remains strong, "Till the time their performance does not become weak or poor, they will keep winning and the opposition will keep losing."

Congress still facing ‘legacy issues’

In Gupta’s view, the Congress continues to deal with what he termed “legacy issues” tied to perceptions of earlier misgovernance. That, he suggested, has made its path back to national power longer.

Speaking of the party’s years out of power, he said, “even if you talk about 2029, it would mean around 15 years (out of power for Congress). I feel it may take at least five more years for them to convince the entire country."

At the same time, he cautioned that long periods of political dominance inevitably raise public expectations. "When you reach great heights, there is also a tendency to come down later. BJP has also reached that stage where expectations from it have risen."

How Gupta tracked Vijay’s rise in Tamil Nadu

Gupta also discussed how his agency identified the ascent of actor-turned-politician Vijay nearly a year before the Tamil Nadu election, with support climbing steadily for his party, TVK.

He said their groundwork began well before campaigning formally started, and voter backing rose from 25% to 35% over the course of a year. "This was the trajectory," Gupta said, outlining how TVK became a key challenger to the DMK-led alliance.

Despite other agencies forecasting a clear win for the ruling alliance, Axis My India gave TVK a competitive range of 98–120 seats. The party ultimately secured 108, almost exactly the agency’s midpoint estimate.

Gupta noted that slight shifts in vote share could dramatically alter seat outcomes. "Even a 2-per cent variation in the vote share can dramatically alter seat outcomes," he said.

Changing Tamil Nadu political landscape

He attributed Vijay’s rapid political ascent to a combination of star power, public fatigue with established parties, and the decline of the AIADMK following the death of its former leader.

According to Gupta, demographic changes have created demands for new political alternatives, especially among younger voters. He pointed out that Vijay’s long-standing screen presence and anti-establishment portrayals strengthened his credibility.

Vijay eventually formed the government with support from several parties, including CPI, CPI(M), VCK and IUML, after navigating a tense standoff with Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar.

(With PTI inputs)