It seems to to be advantage Congress in the Haryana assembly elections, voting for which was held on Saturday. Ahead of the results on October 8, exit polls conducted by multiple pollsters gave the party a majority in the 90 member assembly. 

Let us take a look at the how different pollsters have projected the election outcome:

People's Pulse 

BJP: 20-32
Cong: 49-61
JJP: 0-1
Others: 3-5

Dainik Bhaskar

BJP: 15-29
Cong: 44-54
JJP: 0-1
AAP: 0-1
Others: 4-9

Dhruv Research

BJP: 22-32
Cong: 50-64
JJP: 0
Others: 2-8

Republic-Matrize

BJP 18-24 
INC 55-62
INLD 3-6
JJP 0-3
OTH 2-5

Polls of polls

BJP 24
INC 55
INLD 3
JJP 1
OTH 7

NEWS 18

BJP 24
INC 58
AAP 0
JJP 2
OTH 4

CVOTERS

BJP 27-32
NC+ 40-48
PDP 6-12
OTH 6-11

Money Control

NDA 24
INDIA Congress+ 58
OTH 6

BJP's Bid for a Third Term in Haryana

In Haryana, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a third consecutive term. Meanwhile, the Congress is working to regain control after being out of power for ten years. The political stakes are high, with both major parties vying for control of the agriculturally and historically significant northern state.

How have Exit Polls fared in the past?

Exit polls in the past have shown varying degrees of accuracy in predicting the results. While some polls have correctly forecasted seat distribution, others have missed the mark by wide margins.

In 2014, Haryana saw a record voter turnout of 76.54% on October 15, with results declared four days later. The BJP emerged victorious, winning 47 out of 90 seats. 

Leading pollsters like ABP News–Nielsen, India TV–CVoter and News 24-Chanakya predicted a win for the BJP, with projections ranging from 37 to 52 seats.

Five years later, in 2019, most exit polls predicted a more dominant performance for the BJP. Exit polls such as ABP News-CVoter projected 78 seats for the BJP, NewsX-Pollstrat estimated 76 seats, and Republic-Jan Ki Baat predicted a range between 58 and 70 seats for the party.

Though -- when the results were declared -- the BJP again became the single largest party in Haryana, it saw a reduction in seats, winning 40 compared to 47 in the previous election.  

The BJP formed a government by allying with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and seven independent legislators, leading to a coalition government with Manohar Lal Khattar as the Chief Minister and Dushyant Chautala of the JJP as Deputy Chief Minister.