Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and large parts of Madhya Pradesh are emerging as the biggest weather hotspots as India heads towards a potentially dangerous El Nino year, with forecasts warning of weak monsoon rainfall and rising drought risk across several regions.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 southwest monsoon season, while climate models are signalling the formation of a strong El Nino over the Pacific Ocean by June or July. Weather experts fear the developing system could significantly disrupt rainfall patterns across India during the second half of the monsoon.

The biggest concern lies over north, central and western India, where rainfall activity is expected to weaken sharply during August and September — the most crucial months for agriculture and water storage.

Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are expected to face the highest rainfall stress if El Nino strengthens further. Across Madhya Pradesh, several divisions including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar and Narmadapuram are also likely to record below-normal rainfall this season.

The IMD has estimated monsoon rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), placing the season in the “below normal” category. It has also warned that the probability of a deficient monsoon has climbed to 35%, more than double the historical average.

Why is El Nino becoming a major concern for India?

El Nino is a climate pattern linked to warming sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean. For India, it usually weakens monsoon winds and reduces rainfall across key agricultural regions.

While some states may struggle with prolonged dry spells, other regions could witness the exact opposite.

Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to receive excess rainfall later in the season due to El Nino-linked weather shifts. Chennai, in particular, could face intense rain spells and flood-like situations if heavy showers arrive within short periods.

Forecasters, however, believe the monsoon may begin on a relatively stable note in June before El Nino’s impact intensifies towards August and September.

Meanwhile, Ladakh, parts of the Northeast and sections of Telangana are expected to avoid major rainfall deficits despite the evolving weather system.

With early warning signs already visible, officials are expected to closely monitor rainfall trends and prepare for both drought and flood threats across vulnerable regions in the coming months.