Europe's deadly June heatwave: Is El Niño really to blame?

Europe is witnessing one of its most intense June heatwaves on record, with temperatures crossing 35°C across much of the continent and exceeding 41°C in some regions. The extreme weather has affected France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, forcing governments to issue health warnings, close schools, and activate emergency response plans.

The soaring temperatures have also sparked a debate over whether the newly developed El Niño is responsible for Europe's blistering conditions.

Is El Niño causing Europe's heatwave?

The short answer is no—not directly.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. The phenomenon influences weather patterns across the globe and can temporarily increase Earth's average temperature.

In June 2026, both the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that El Niño conditions had returned. Forecasts suggest the event could strengthen further during the second half of the year.

Historically, El Niño has been associated with:

• Droughts in Australia and Indonesia.
• Heavy rainfall in parts of East Africa and the southern United States.
• Warmer-than-average global temperatures.
• Changes in tropical cyclone activity.

However, scientists say the current European heatwave is not being driven primarily by El Niño.

What is actually causing the extreme heat?

Meteorologists say the immediate cause is a powerful heat dome that has settled over western and central Europe.

A heat dome forms when a large area of high atmospheric pressure becomes stationary, trapping hot air near the surface. As the trapped air continues to warm under clear skies, temperatures rise day after day.

In this case, the high-pressure system is pulling extremely hot and dry air from the Sahara Desert into Europe through a weather pattern often described as the Saharan heat conveyor. With little cloud cover and almost no rainfall, the heat becomes trapped over the continent.

Why are temperatures reaching record levels?

The heat dome alone does not explain the record-breaking temperatures.

Climate scientists say the biggest reason the heat has become so severe is human-induced climate change.

Over the past several decades, greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels have steadily increased global temperatures. As a result, every heatwave now begins from a much warmer starting point than it did in previous decades.

Europe has become the fastest-warming continent, with temperatures rising at roughly twice the global average. This means weather patterns that once produced hot summers are now capable of generating unprecedented heat.

Researchers from the World Weather Attribution project have concluded that heatwaves like the one affecting Europe today have become far more likely because of climate change.

The role of dry soils

Another major factor is the unusually dry conditions across much of Europe.

The continent experienced a dry spring, leaving soils with very little moisture. Normally, part of the Sun's energy is used to evaporate water from the ground, naturally cooling the surface.

When the soil is dry, that cooling process disappears. Instead, nearly all of the Sun's energy heats the land directly, allowing temperatures to climb even higher.

This creates a feedback loop:

• Dry soil increases temperatures.
• Higher temperatures dry the soil even further.
• Even drier soil leads to more extreme heat.

Why are warm nights so dangerous?

One of the most worrying aspects of this heatwave is the rise in tropical nights, where overnight temperatures remain above 20°C.

Normally, cooler nights allow people, buildings and infrastructure to recover from the daytime heat. During tropical nights, that recovery does not happen.

Continuous exposure to high temperatures increases the risk of:

• Heat exhaustion.
• Heatstroke.
• Dehydration.
• Cardiovascular problems.

Higher mortality among older adults and vulnerable people.

Health experts say prolonged hot nights are one of the deadliest features of modern heatwaves.

How is the heat affecting Europe?

The prolonged extreme temperatures are disrupting daily life across several countries.

In France, hospitals have reported a surge in heat-related illnesses, while authorities have activated emergency plans to protect vulnerable residents.

Germany has seen roads crack and buckle under intense heat, disrupting transport and freight movement.

In parts of southern Europe, warm river water has reduced the efficiency of power stations that rely on rivers for cooling, forcing some facilities to lower electricity production.

Cities across Europe have also opened cooling centres, expanded public health advisories and urged people to avoid outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day.

Could El Niño make things worse later?

Although El Niño is not the main driver of Europe's current heatwave, scientists say it could still contribute to higher global temperatures later in 2026.

A stronger El Niño releases additional heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, often making global average temperatures temporarily warmer.

If El Niño continues to strengthen during the coming months, it could amplify heat events occurring in different parts of the world, though local weather systems will continue to determine where the most extreme conditions develop.

The bigger picture

Climate experts stress that the June 2026 heatwave should not be viewed as an isolated weather event.

Instead, it reflects a long-term trend in which climate change is making extreme heat more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.

While El Niño may influence global weather this year, the record-breaking temperatures currently affecting Europe are being driven mainly by a powerful Saharan heat dome acting on a continent that has already warmed significantly due to human-caused climate change.

Scientists warn that unless global greenhouse gas emissions are substantially reduced, heatwaves of this intensity are expected to become increasingly common across Europe in the coming decades.