Did someone know early? Trading patterns before Trump’s Iran moves raise insider trading questions

A detailed analysis has revealed repeated instances of unusual trading activity occurring shortly before major public announcements by US President Donald Trump, sparking concerns over potential insider trading in financial markets.

Unusual trading patterns flagged across markets

The findings, reported by BBC, show consistent spikes in trading volumes across oil, equities, and prediction markets just minutes or hours before key statements were made public. Analysts suggest that such behaviour may indicate early access to sensitive information, though others argue it could reflect highly anticipatory trading in volatile geopolitical conditions.

Oil markets show early positioning

One highlighted case occurred during tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran, when oil prices dropped sharply following Trump’s comments hinting at de-escalation. However, trading data reportedly showed large positions being taken nearly an hour before the remarks were published.

Similar patterns were observed in later announcements, where oil prices moved significantly after statements but trading activity had already increased beforehand.

Stock market movements ahead of policy decisions

The report also examined stock market reactions tied to tariff-related policy shifts. In one instance, US equities surged dramatically following an official announcement, but trading volumes had spiked unusually in the minutes leading up to it.

Such patterns have prompted speculation that some traders may have acted on non-public information.

Prediction markets under scrutiny

Blockchain-based prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi were also mentioned in the analysis. In certain cases, accounts placed large bets shortly before major geopolitical events, earning substantial returns after outcomes were confirmed.

Some accounts reportedly became inactive after securing profits, further raising questions about trading behaviour.

Calls for investigation grow

The findings have led to renewed calls from lawmakers for closer scrutiny by US regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, to determine whether insider trading laws were violated.

While insider trading is illegal in the United States, experts note that distinguishing between informed speculation and illegal information access remains challenging in fast-moving global markets.