Delimitation 2026: How could border reshuffle shift India’s power balance in the South

Delimitation is the process of fixing the boundaries of Lok Sabha and Legislative Assembly constituencies in a country or a specific region with a legislative body. This process is carried out based on the changing population figures of the country.

The primary objectives are to ensure equal representation for all sections of the population and to divide constituencies geographically and scientifically. This ensures election neutrality, preventing any particular political party from gaining an unfair advantage.

This process is executed by the Delimitation Commission. This independent body, appointed by the Central Government, is chaired by a retired Supreme Court Judge. Other members include the Chief Election Commissioner (or an official nominated by the Election Commissioner) and the State Election Commissioner of the respective state.

Why seats have not been increased since 1971

According to Article 81 of the Constitution, the number of Lok Sabha seats should be recalculated in proportion to the population after every decennial census. However, the number of seats in the Lok Sabha is currently frozen at 543, based on the 1971 Census.

This freeze was implemented through the 42nd Constitutional Amendment in 1976 during the Emergency. The measure was taken to ensure that states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which cooperated with national population control programmes and successfully reduced their population growth, did not lose their political representation. The goal was to ensure equity by preventing states with higher population growth from gaining more seats. In 2001, via the 84th Amendment, this restriction was extended until 2026. Consequently, while India's population has grown from 540 million in 1971 to over 1.4 billion today, the number of Lok Sabha seats has remained unchanged.

Political concerns of South India

When the number of Lok Sabha seats increases from the current 543 to a projected 848, Kerala will see an increase of 10 seats (from 20 to 30). However, despite the rise in the number of seats, there is a strong concern that South India’s influence in national politics may diminish.

Seat increase: A comparison table (Based on a total of 816 seats)

The following table illustrates the potential changes in South Indian states compared to major North Indian states:

Increased numbers, decreased influence?

While Kerala's Lok Sabha seats will increase from 20 to 30, its total share of representation in the Lok Sabha will slightly decrease from 3.683% to 3.676%. Even with more seats, Kerala does not see a major rise in its overall stake. Tamil Nadu, by gaining 20 additional seats (totalling 59), will see its share rise marginally from 7.18% to 7.23%. Telangana also sees a slight increase in its share (3.13% to 3.18%).

• North Indian states: States like Uttar Pradesh (14.70%) and Bihar (7.35%) will maintain their dominant representation. Their seats increasing to 120 and 60 respectively will solidify their influence in the House.
• Balance of power: Since the number of seats increases across all states, there isn't a massive disparity between the old and new percentage shares. However, South Indian states are worried about whether states with higher population growth rates will continue to gain more seats in the future.
• North Indian bloc: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan alone would account for 218 seats. This could result in North India becoming a massive power centre within the Parliament.

While an additional 10 seats for Kerala is locally beneficial, South India's collective political bargaining power at the national level is likely to weaken. As population growth in North Indian states grants them greater dominance in the House, protecting the interests of South Indian states—which have achieved huge developmental milestones—remains a major challenge.