The IMD has warned that Cyclone Arnab could develop over the Bay of Bengal by October 26, with winds gusting up to 90 kmph and a possible approach towards the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coast. Meanwhile, 10 Kerala districts are under an orange alert for heavy rain on October 24.
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that a cyclonic storm could develop over the Bay of Bengal by October 26 and move towards the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coast around October 28. Meanwhile, Kerala is expected to experience continued heavy rainfall, with orange alerts issued in 10 districts on Saturday, October 24.
Cyclone Arnab: IMD warns of possible landfall near Andhra Pradesh and Odisha
The IMD has forecast the development of a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 26. The weather system, which was identified as a low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on Friday, October 23, is expected to intensify into a depression on October 24 before strengthening further.
According to the forecast, the system could develop into a cyclonic storm by October 26 and move west-northwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the following two days.
If the system develops into a cyclone, it will be named Arnab, a name proposed by Bangladesh.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said wind speeds could reach 70–80 kmph, with gusts of up to 90 kmph, from the morning of October 26. Wind speeds and the storm's intensity could increase as the system develops.
The exact path and landfall location have not yet been confirmed. Odisha authorities said greater clarity on the system's movement could emerge by Saturday.
Odisha government alerts districts, fishermen advised to stay ashore
The Odisha government has alerted district administrations and directed officials to prepare for possible heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari said the government was monitoring the evolving weather system and would take precautionary measures to minimise damage and ensure the restoration of essential services.
A high-level preparedness meeting was scheduled for Friday evening, with senior state officials, the chief secretary, the special relief commissioner and collectors from 16 districts expected to participate virtually.
The IMD has also warned that the sea over the east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal is already rough and could become very rough in the coming days. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea.
Heavy rainfall is also forecast over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal as the weather system develops.
Kerala weather: orange alert in 10 districts on October 24
While the developing cyclone is not expected to directly affect Kerala, favourable wind conditions associated with the broader weather pattern could intensify rainfall across the state.
The IMD has issued an orange alert for 10 districts in Kerala on Saturday, October 24:
- Thiruvananthapuram
- Kollam
- Alappuzha
- Pathanamthitta
- Kottayam
- Idukki
- Ernakulam
- Thrissur
- Palakkad
- Malappuram
An orange alert has also been issued for Kozhikode and Wayanad on Sunday, October 25, in addition to the districts already under orange alert.
A yellow alert for heavy rainfall has been issued for the remaining districts on both days. According to the forecast provided, heavy rainfall could continue until October 26.
A separate low-pressure system that developed near Kanyakumari and Kerala has moved over the Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep, contributing to the unsettled weather conditions in the region.
What is the expected timeline for Cyclone Arnab?
| Date | Expected development |
|---|---|
| October 23 | Low-pressure area persists over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal |
| October 24 | System likely to intensify into a depression |
| October 25 | Further intensification expected |
| October 26 | Possible development into a cyclonic storm; winds may reach 70–80 kmph, gusting to 90 kmph |
| October 27–28 | System expected to move towards the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coast; exact landfall remains uncertain |
These dates reflect the forecast available on October 23–24. The system's actual development, intensity and movement will depend on subsequent IMD updates.
Why the developing cyclone matters
The forecast raises concerns for coastal communities in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, where strong winds, rough seas and heavy rainfall could disrupt fishing, transport and other outdoor activities. The potential for the system to intensify over the Bay of Bengal makes continued monitoring and advance preparedness important, even though the exact landfall location remains uncertain.
Kerala faces a separate immediate concern: continued heavy rainfall across multiple districts. The orange alerts indicate the need for heightened caution, particularly in areas vulnerable to waterlogging, flooding and landslides. The developing Bay of Bengal cyclone should not be treated as the direct cause of all rainfall across Kerala, as local weather systems and prevailing wind conditions also influence precipitation.
For residents and travellers, the key priorities are to follow district-level advisories, avoid entering rough seas and monitor updated rainfall and cyclone forecasts. Fishermen should follow official restrictions, while coastal administrations should remain prepared for changes in the storm's projected path and intensity.
The next major development will be the IMD's assessment of the system's intensification and movement, which should provide greater clarity on the potential impact along the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coast.
Published: 24 Oct 2026, 08:42 am IST
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