Netanyahu’s election gamble? Final polls predict no clear majority in Israel
Jerusalem: Final opinion polls published by Israeli media suggest that neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition nor the opposition-led bloc is on course to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset, pointing to a potentially difficult coalition-building process after the election.
The final opinion polls released before Israel’s national election indicate that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition nor the opposition-led change bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.
The surveys, broadcast by Israeli television channels on Friday, point to continued political uncertainty, with the composition of the next government likely to depend on coalition negotiations and the decisions of smaller parties.
According to The Times of Israel, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to emerge as the largest faction in two of the three surveys, ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud. The polls also suggest that several smaller parties could fail to cross the electoral threshold, potentially complicating efforts to assemble a governing majority.
What the three polls predict
The three surveys offer different projections for the balance of power between the main political blocs.
Polling organisation | Change bloc | Netanyahu's coalition | Arab parties |
|---|---|---|---|
Channel 13 | 54 seats | 50 seats | 16 seats |
Channel 12 | 56 seats | 50 seats | 14 seats |
Kan | 52 seats | 50 seats | 14 seats |
These are projections from separate opinion polls, not election results. The change-bloc figures exclude the Arab parties listed separately in the surveys.
In the Channel 13 poll, Yashar was projected to win 22 seats, followed by Likud with 19, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad with 14 and the left-wing Democrats with 10. The Joint List was forecast to secure nine seats.
Yisrael Beytenu, Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism were each projected to win eight seats. Shas and Ra’am were forecast to secure seven seats apiece.
The Channel 12 survey gave Yashar 23 seats, Likud 21, B’Yachad 15 and the Democrats 10. The Joint List was projected to win nine seats. Yisrael Beytenu, Shas and Otzma Yehudit were each forecast to secure eight seats, while United Torah Judaism was projected to win seven.
Kan’s survey predicted 22 seats for Yashar, 20 for Likud and 14 for B’Yachad. The Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beytenu and United Torah Judaism were each projected to win eight seats. Shas and Religious Zionism were forecast to secure seven seats each, while Ra’am was projected to win five.
Smaller parties could influence coalition formation
The surveys differed over the prospects of Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists party. Channel 13 and Channel 12 projected that the party would fail to enter the Knesset, while Kan forecast that it would win four seats.
Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Moti Leitner’s Charedi Public party were projected to fall short of the electoral threshold in all three surveys.
The fate of smaller parties could prove significant if the leading blocs remain short of a majority. Their entry into the Knesset, or failure to cross the threshold, could change the distribution of seats and the potential combinations available for forming a government.
Polling restrictions and survey margins
The surveys were published on Friday before a ban on releasing election polls came into effect on Saturday, according to The Times of Israel. Exit polls are expected when polling stations close at 10 pm on Tuesday.
The Channel 13 survey, conducted by Shmuel Rosner and Noah Slepkov, included 1,875 respondents and had a reported margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.
The Channel 12 poll, conducted by Midgam’s Manu Geva, surveyed 1,018 respondents and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Kan’s survey, conducted by Dudu Hasid of the Kantar Institute, included 1,106 respondents and had a margin of error of three percentage points.
A separate final pre-election poll published by Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s sister site, projected 51 seats for each of the two Jewish-led blocs, 14 for Arab-led parties and four for Reservists.
These figures remain estimates. The actual distribution of seats will depend on the votes cast and the final election results.
Netanyahu visits Hebron as security operation begins
The election campaign is unfolding amid renewed security tensions in the West Bank.
The Israel Defence Forces said on Friday that it had launched what it described as a “limited counterterrorism” operation in the Hebron area following a shooting attack in which two Israeli soldiers were killed and several others wounded.
In a statement posted on X, the IDF said its troops and other security forces were conducting searches to locate and dismantle what it described as terrorist infrastructure and weapons, while questioning suspects.
The military also said residents in the affected area could leave through three designated exit points. Individuals considered suspicious during security screening could be referred for further questioning, according to the statement.
Earlier on Friday, Netanyahu visited Hebron after ordering a “full lockdown” of the West Bank following an attack in the area that left five people wounded, according to the supplied report. Israeli authorities attributed the assault to alleged Hamas militants.
The security developments form part of the wider political backdrop to the election, although the opinion polls do not establish how individual voters will respond to these events.
Why the election could produce another political stalemate
The central issue raised by the polls is not simply which party will win the most seats, but whether any combination of parties can secure the parliamentary support needed to govern.
Under Israel’s parliamentary system, a party does not automatically form a government by emerging as the largest faction. The prime minister must be able to assemble a coalition that commands the confidence of the Knesset. With the main blocs projected to fall short of 61 seats, negotiations with smaller parties could become decisive.
The polls also show why the performance of Arab-led parties and smaller factions matters. Their projected seats could affect the arithmetic of potential coalitions, while campaign pledges ruling out cooperation with particular parties may restrict the available options.
However, opinion polls cannot establish the final outcome or guarantee that parties will maintain their campaign positions after voting. Differences between the three surveys also underline the uncertainty surrounding the distribution of seats.
If no viable coalition can be formed, Israel could face another election. The Times of Israel reported that repeat elections could take place in early 2027, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister in the interim.
The immediate indicators to watch are the final seat distribution, the positions taken by smaller parties and whether the leading political blocs can secure sufficient support to form a government.