Trump administration ends H-1B visa lottery in favour of wage-based system

Washington: The Trump administration announced Tuesday it is replacing the random H-1B visa lottery with a wage-based selection system that will favour higher-skilled, higher-paid foreign workers, marking a major shift in how the United States allocates 85,000 work visas annually.

The Department of Homeland Security said the new weighted selection process will take effect February 27, 2026, and apply to the fiscal year 2027 H-1B cap registration season. Under the system, applicants will receive multiple lottery entries based on their salary level, with those offered the highest wages classified as Department of Labour Level IV, entered four times, while entry-level positions receive just one entry.

"The existing random selection process of H-1B registrations was exploited and abused by US employers who were primarily seeking to import foreign workers at lower wages than they would pay American workers," US Citizenship and Immigration Services spokesman Matthew Tragesser said.

Probability Shift for Applicants

USCIS estimates the change will dramatically alter selection odds. Entry-level positions, classified as Level I, will see their probability of selection drop from 29.59% to 15.29%—a 48% decrease. Meanwhile, Level IV candidates will see their chances more than double to 61.16%.

The H-1B program is capped at 65,000 visas annually, with an additional 20,000 reserved for applicants holding US advanced degrees. Indian professionals, who account for approximately 70% of recent H-1B recipients, are expected to be seriously impacted by the changes.

Part of Broader Immigration Crackdown

The rule marks the latest in a series of H-1B restrictions introduced by the Trump administration. In September 2025, Trump imposed a $100,000 fee on new H-1B applications, and in December, the State Department began enhanced social media vetting of all H-1B applicants.

Immigration experts have raised concerns about the new system. Jeremy Neufeld, immigration policy director at the Institute for Progress, noted that wage-based selection could favour seniority over actual skill level, potentially allowing lower-skill positions with high seniority to outcompete more specialised early-career professionals.

The administration contends the reforms will better protect American workers while maintaining opportunities for employers to hire foreign talent at all wage levels.