How did India overtake UAE, Saudi Arabia to become Kenya's top fuel supplier?

India has overtaken Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to become Kenya's biggest supplier of petroleum products, as disruptions in Middle Eastern fuel-trading routes push the East African nation towards alternative sources.

India has emerged as Kenya's leading source of petroleum products, overtaking Gulf suppliers Saudi Arabia and the UAE amid disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict in the Middle East.

According to data cited from Belgian commodity-data company Kpler by energy economist Anas Alhajji, India has replaced the UAE and Saudi Arabia as a supplier of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil to Kenya.

The change marks a significant shift in Kenya's fuel-supply pattern, which has traditionally relied heavily on Gulf producers.

Why Kenya turned to India

Kenya has historically sourced petroleum products through arrangements involving major Gulf energy companies, including Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi's ADNOC and Emirates National Oil Company.

Disruptions to fuel-trading routes in the Middle East have encouraged Kenya to diversify its sources. India, with its large refining capacity and established export infrastructure, has been able to supply the resulting demand.

UAE shipments to Kenya reportedly fell sharply, from about 90,000 barrels per day in January to around 15,000 barrels per day in August.

Evidence of India's growing role appeared earlier in the year. Official documents reviewed by Business Daily Africa showed that 82.38 million litres of kerosene loaded at Sikka port in India were discharged at Mombasa on March 19. A further shipment of 156.75 million litres of kerosene and diesel was scheduled from Sikka in April.

India's refining advantage

India imports more than 90% of its crude oil but has developed substantial refining capacity, allowing it to process imported crude into products for domestic consumption and export.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas ranks India as the world's fourth-largest oil refiner and Asia's second-largest. The country has 22 operational refineries with a combined installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes a year.

India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products during 2025-26.

The world's largest oil-refining complex, the Reliance Industries refinery complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat, is also located in India.

Africa becomes a major market for Indian fuel

India's growing position in Kenya is part of a broader increase in petroleum-product exports to Africa.

Alhajji said India's petroleum-product exports to Africa reached a record level in July, increasing 66% year on year.

The shift has also been linked to changes in European fuel markets. The European Union's restrictions on petroleum products refined from Russian crude in third countries have redirected some Indian fuel cargoes towards other markets, including Africa.

India has also become an alternative source for countries facing refinery or supply disruptions elsewhere. Russia, traditionally one of the world's major crude exporters, began importing some Indian petroleum products after Ukrainian attacks disrupted its domestic refining capacity.

India's exports to Kenya surge

India's wider trade with Kenya has also expanded.

According to India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Indian exports to Kenya rose 151.41% in July 2026 compared with July 2025. The figure covers all goods rather than petroleum products alone.

Petroleum products were nevertheless a major contributor to India's overall export growth. India's global petroleum-product exports rose 67.64% in July, from $4.13 billion a year earlier to $6.92 billion.

India was Kenya's third-largest trading partner in 2025-26, according to the Indian High Commission in Nairobi. Bilateral trade reached $4.31 billion, with Indian exports accounting for $4.01 billion and imports from Kenya for $290 million.

Petroleum products are among India's principal exports to Kenya.

Explainer

India's emergence as Kenya's top petroleum supplier reflects the growing importance of its refining sector in global energy trade. Although India remains heavily dependent on imported crude oil, its large refining capacity allows it to convert that crude into high-value petroleum products for overseas markets.

The change in Kenya also illustrates how geopolitical disruptions can quickly alter established fuel-supply routes. Gulf producers have traditionally been important suppliers to East Africa because of their geographic proximity and established commercial links. Disruptions in the Middle East have created an opening for Indian refiners.

The wider shift towards Africa is significant for Indian refiners because changes in European regulations have made some traditional export markets less accessible. African demand provides an alternative destination for Indian petroleum products and could strengthen India's role as a major refined-fuel exporter.

For Kenya, sourcing more fuel from India provides greater diversification at a time of uncertainty in global energy markets. However, the long-term significance of the shift will depend on freight costs, crude prices, refinery economics, geopolitical conditions and whether Gulf fuel supplies return to previous levels.