Monsoon eases in Kerala, but heavier rain remains on the horizon; know the IMD weather outlook

Residents and visitors in Kerala can expect a relatively calm weather week as the monsoon enters a quieter phase. According to the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday, July 14, rainfall across the south peninsular region is currently classified as "subdued". While Thiruvananthapuram recorded a wind speed of 55 kmph over the last 24 hours, the immediate outlook for the state remains stable.

For the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday, July 15, the weather office has issued a "yellow" watch, advising the public to "be aware" of local conditions. During these two days, some areas may experience isolated thunderstorms and lightning. Winds are expected to be moderate, generally reaching speeds of 30 to 40 kmph, with occasional gusts of up to 50 kmph. For those planning local travel or outdoor activities, these conditions suggest a typical monsoon breeze rather than significant disruption.

Nature of the monsoon shift and weekend outlook

The current dip in heavy rain is linked to the position of the monsoon trough, which is currently lying north of its normal position. Additionally, a new weather system is developing over the northeastern region. A low-pressure area is likely to form over the North Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours. While this system is drawing the heaviest rainfall towards East and Northeast India, it is expected to bring a change in Kerala's weather pattern by the weekend. 

Between now and Friday, July 17, rainfall in Kerala and Mahe is expected to remain "scattered", meaning only some areas will receive showers. However, those with weekend plans should note a predicted increase in activity. From Saturday, July 18, through Monday, July 20, the IMD anticipates that rainfall will become "fairly widespread to widespread" across the state. Until then, the weather is expected to remain manageable, with no major alerts currently in place for the midweek period.

School, college holiday chances

As of now, no weather-related holiday has been announced for Wednesday, July 15, or the coming days.

However, the weather situation remains dynamic, and IMD forecasts may be updated in the coming hours. District administrations may declare holidays for schools and colleges in affected areas depending on local weather conditions.

Students and parents are advised to rely only on official announcements from district collectors and educational institutions for updates on school holidays or changes to class timings.