CM Pinarayi Vijayan to be dethroned after 10 years? Exit polls signal political shift in Kerala

Early exit poll projections for the Kerala Assembly elections 2026 point to a closely contested battle, with several pollsters indicating that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) may hold a narrow edge over the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) headed by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

The trend has set the stage for a high-stakes political contest in one of India’s most closely watched states.

Pinarayi Vijayan’s rise and political background

Pinarayi Vijayan, a senior leader of the CPIM, has been a central figure in Kerala politics for decades. Before becoming Chief Minister, he held key portfolios in earlier Left governments, including Electricity and Home Affairs. Over time, he emerged as the CPIM’s most prominent face in the state, known for his strong organisational control and administrative authority.

Ten years of LDF rule under Vijayan

Vijayan became Chief Minister in 2016, beginning the current phase of LDF governance. His first term focused on public welfare programmes, infrastructure development, and disaster response. A defining moment of his tenure was the 2018 Kerala floods, where the government played a central role in relief and rehabilitation efforts, which received widespread recognition.

In 2021, the LDF achieved a historic second consecutive term by winning 99 seats in the 140-member Assembly, securing around 45.3% vote share. This broke Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments, strengthening Vijayan’s position as a dominant political leader.

Despite electoral success, Vijayan’s tenure has also faced criticism from opposition parties. Concerns have been raised over unemployment levels, governance decisions, and certain administrative controversies. Critics have also pointed to issues related to economic pressure in the state, despite expansion of welfare schemes under the LDF government.

2026 exit poll trends and current contest

Exit poll projections for 2026 suggest a possible shift in voter sentiment. Multiple pollsters, including Matrize, People’s Pulse, Axis My India and P-Marq, have indicated a tight contest, with the UDF projected in the range of 70–90 seats and the LDF close behind in the 55–65 range. The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain a minor player in most projections.

With the majority mark set at 71 seats, the outcome remains uncertain, keeping both alliances within striking distance of power.

Campaign focus and key issues

The LDF campaign, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, has highlighted welfare delivery, infrastructure progress, and governance continuity over the past decade. The UDF, meanwhile, has focused on anti-incumbency sentiment, administrative change, and economic revival as its central themes.

With counting scheduled for May 4, the final results will determine whether Pinarayi Vijayan secures a rare third consecutive term or whether Kerala returns to its traditional pattern of electoral alternation. The 2026 election is widely seen as a referendum on his decade-long leadership.