Bihar Election 2025: Opinion poll predicts NDA edge, BJP to emerge as largest party

New Delhi: The Janata Dal (United)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to retain power in Bihar in the upcoming assembly elections, according to an opinion poll conducted by JVC Poll released on Saturday.

The survey predicts that the NDA could bag between 120 and 140 seats in the 243-member assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) may secure 93 to 112 seats.

The BJP is projected to be the largest party, winning 70 to 81 seats, followed by the JD(U) with 42 to 48, LJP (RV) with 5 to 7, HAM(S) with 2, and RLM with 1 to 2 seats.

Within the opposition bloc, RJD may win 69 to 78 seats, Congress between 9 and 17, CPI(ML) 12 to 14, and both CPI and CPM one or two seats each. Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party could open its account with a single seat, while AIMIM, BSP, and other smaller outfits together might win 8 to 10 seats.

Subhead 1: Tejashwi Most Preferred as CM

The opinion poll reveals that Tejashwi Yadav tops the popularity chart as the most preferred chief ministerial candidate, with 33% support.

He is followed by Nitish Kumar at 29%, Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishor at 10% each, and Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary with 9%. Only 4% of respondents backed another BJP face, while 5% preferred someone else from the MGB.

Subhead 2: NDA Leads in Vote Share

In terms of vote share, the NDA is projected to secure 41–43%, narrowly ahead of the MGB’s 39–41%. The Jan Suraaj Party may draw 6–7%, while smaller parties could corner 10–11% of the total votes.

Subhead 3: Poll Dates and Voter Data

The Election Commission has announced that Bihar’s 243 assembly seats will go to the polls in two phases — November 6 and November 11, with counting on November 14.

The final electoral roll lists 7.42 crore electors, after the removal of 65 lakh voters from the draft list issued earlier this year.

In the 2020 assembly elections, the BJP had won 74 of 110 seats it contested with 19.8% vote share, while the JD(U) secured 43 of 115 seats with 15.7%.