Bihar exit poll twist: NDA set for majority—yet voters pick a surprising CM face

Patna: Most exit polls for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have projected a clear lead for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even as surveys reveal an unexpected twist in the voters’ choice for chief minister.

The counting of votes will begin at 8 am on Friday, November 14, setting the stage for a high-voltage verdict in a state that has swung between alliances and personalities for over a decade.

Exit poll projections released on Thursday show the NDA—comprising the BJP, JD(U) and their partners—comfortably ahead in the 243-member Assembly.

Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India, two of the most closely watched pollsters, also signalled an NDA edge. While Today’s Chanakya gave the alliance 121–141 seats, Axis My India projected a more decisive 160 (±12) seats, well past the majority mark of 122.

Despite the bleak forecast for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, which is looking to rebound after its narrow loss in 2020, the alliance appears to have something to hold onto this election cycle: the popularity of its leader, Tejashwi Yadav.

In a surprising divergence from seat projections, surveys mapping the public’s preferred chief minister show Tejashwi ahead of incumbent CM Nitish Kumar.

Both Peoples Pulse and Axis My India reported that Tejashwi enjoys a higher approval rating for the top post—even though these same pollsters predict an NDA majority.

Axis My India, while estimating a competitive 121–141 seats for the NDA and 98–118 for the Mahagathbandhan, recorded 34% of respondents backing Tejashwi for CM, placing him comfortably above Nitish Kumar, who stood at 22%.

Another 14% expressed preference for “any BJP candidate,” reflecting internal uncertainties within the NDA over succession.

Peoples Pulse displayed a similar trend. Even though it forecast a sweeping 133–159 seats for the NDA versus 75–101 seats for the RJD-led bloc, Tejashwi topped the CM-choice chart with 32%, narrowly edging out Nitish Kumar at 30%.

Another subplot in this election cycle has been the performance of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party.

Despite an aggressive campaign and months of grassroots mobilisation, exit polls predict a disappointing debut, ranging from zero to a maximum of five seats. For Kishor, who re-entered the political fray with promises of systemic change, the projections offer little comfort.

Voting concluded on November 6 and 11 across two phases, with Bihar now poised for a verdict that could reaffirm the NDA’s dominance but also signal shifting preferences over leadership.

All eyes now turn to November 14, when the numbers will reveal whether the exit polls get it right—and whether Bihar’s voters deliver another twist.