Bihar polls 2025: Performance of heavyweight candidates in crucial battleground constituencies

Patna: The counting of votes for the 243-seat 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election, held in two phases on 6 and 11 November, has delivered a sweeping early lead for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The initial numbers have redrawn the state’s political landscape and strengthened the position of several heavyweight leaders within the major alliances.

Early picture: NDA breaks through

By mid-morning on counting day, the NDA had crossed the majority mark of 122 seats in most trackers, with some placing the alliance near 189 seats, compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s 50–55.

According to the Election Commission of India trends, JD(U) and BJP were running close, with JD(U) ahead on 77 seats and BJP on 73 around 10 am. The trends indicate consolidation of incumbency rather than the anticipated anti-incumbency sentiment.

Key drivers of the verdict

Several factors appear to be shaping the early outcome:

A high voter turnout of 66.91%, including an impressive 71.6% participation among women, signalled strong mobilisation across demographics.

The NDA’s campaign projected governance continuity and stability, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s record on law and order, welfare measures and infrastructure resonating across key districts.

In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav struggled to convert its social base into enough winning seats, despite strong pockets of performance.

The much-discussed Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor showed only marginal presence in early numbers, with leads in very few seats.

Heavyweight candidates: Where they stand

Nitish Kumar (JD(U)): Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the NDA’s central figure, appeared to be benefiting from the alliance’s broad lead. As JD(U) held strong positions across multiple regions, Kumar’s governance-first messaging seemed to play a decisive role. With his party pushing ahead of the BJP by a thin margin in early trends, Kumar’s stature within the ruling coalition remains strong, positioning him for what could be another term at the helm.

Tejashwi Yadav (RJD): In Raghopur, Tejashwi Yadav maintained an early lead in his family stronghold. But while the seat remains loyal, his alliance’s wider struggles temper the symbolic weight of his personal performance.

A convincing margin here is vital for Tejashwi to reinforce his leadership image as the Mahagathbandhan grapples with its shrinking footprint elsewhere.

Samrat Chaudhary (BJP): BJP’s top state leader Samrat Chaudhary held comfortable leads from Tarapur. His performance indicates successful consolidation among OBC communities and reinforces his growing influence within the BJP’s Bihar leadership matrix.

Prashant Kishor (Jan Suraaj): Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor saw limited returns from his grassroots-focused campaign. Despite drawing attention through his padyatra and village-level outreach, early trends gave the JSP only scattered leads, far below expectations of a disruptive debut.

Maithili Thakur (BJP): In Alinagar, singer-turned-politician Maithili Thakur registered a strong early lead over RJD rival Binod Mishra, marking a significant win for the BJP’s strategy of placing culturally influential and youth-centric candidates in key seats.

Anant Kumar Singh (JD(U): In Mokama, JD(U) strongman Anant Kumar Singh maintained a solid lead over RJD’s Veena Devi, underscoring the resilience of entrenched local networks despite recent controversies and heavy administrative scrutiny.

Shreyasi Singh (BJP): In Jamui, BJP’s national shooter-turned-legislator Shreyasi Singh was locked in an important contest with RJD’s Mohammad Shamsad Alam. The seat’s outcome will offer insights into the BJP’s penetration in districts shaped by mining-linked livelihoods and migration patterns.

The road ahead

While NDA’s early lead appears decisive, the final picture will only become clear once all rounds of counting conclude. Much will depend on the final margins, seat distribution between JD(U) and BJP, and the shape of the next cabinet.

But one trend is unmistakable: Bihar’s political pendulum is swinging towards continuity rather than change. With heavyweight candidates across the NDA performing strongly, the alliance looks poised to retain power unless dramatic reversals emerge in later rounds of counting.