'Whatever India does to regulate the flow of rivers to Pakistan, J&K will face the impact first': Himanshu Thakkar
Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated sharply following the tragic terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir. In a major retaliatory step, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, prompting Pakistan to label the move as an act of war.
The treaty, which governs the distribution of water from the Indus River system, has long been a strategic tool, and experts suggest that India’s decision signals a significant escalation in diplomatic and geopolitical pressure on Pakistan.
The Indus system of rivers comprises the main river -- the Indus -- along with its five left-bank tributaries, namely, the Ravi, the Beas, the Sutlej, the Jhelum and the Chenab.
The Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej are together called eastern rivers, while the Chenab, the Jhelum and the Indus are called western rivers. Its waters are critical to both India and Pakistan.
Speaking to Mathrubhumi English, water resources expert Himanshu Thakkar weighed in on the matter. "It affects Pakistan very significantly because the Indus River is the lifeline of the country. Around 80% of their water comes from the Indus basin. While there is some water coming from Afghanistan, through the Kabul River, which is also a tributary of the Indus, and some rainfall within Pakistan, the majority of Pakistan’s irrigation, hydropower generation, electricity production, and overall development are heavily reliant on the Indus Basin. A significant portion of the electricity of Pakistan is generated in dams in the Indus Basin. By extension, Pakistan’s economy is also dependent on this river."
Excerpts from the interview:
There are claims in J&K that the region has been disadvantaged by the Indus Water Treaty. What are your thoughts on this?
I don't know who in Jammu & Kashmir is saying that the treaty is not in their favour. Perhaps some politicians are saying this, and they've been saying it for a long time. The thing is, as far as the treaty goes, it has allocated three rivers for most of the development of Pakistan: the Chenab, Indus, and Jhelum. Because there are limitations on what can and cannot be done by India with respect to these western rivers, some J&K politicians have been claiming that the region has been neglected in the process. But the fact is, even within the provisions of the treaty that allows India to use the western rivers, we haven’t fully utilised those rights. For example, the treaty allows for the storage of 3.6 million acre-feet of water, but we haven’t even created storage for 1 million acre-feet yet. Similarly, the treaty permits the irrigation of over 1.34 million acres, but we’ve not even achieved half of that.
Moreover, there are a lot of small streams and rainwater harvesting opportunities in J&K that could be used for local development, but these haven’t been fully explored either. So, it doesn’t seem very reasonable or plausible to say that the interests of J&K have been completely ignored.
What kind of environmental impact does it have on J&K? There were reports of a decrease in the water level of Jhelum. Can you explain this?
If we consider India's operations, such as regulating water flow to Pakistan, whether it’s from the Chenab or Jhelum, the first impacts will be felt in J&K. So, whether the water level increases or decreases, the immediate effects will be within India. For example, the last project on the Chenab is Salal. Downstream of Salal, there are about 60 to 70 kilometres of river in India. If India regulates the flow of the Chenab using the Salal project, the first impact will be in the downstream Indian portion of J&K. Similarly, if changes are made for the river stretch from Baglihar to Salal, like what happened on Sunday, the first impact will again be felt in the 75 km stretch between Baglihar and Salal.
Similarly, if there are changes in the water flow from one of the Jhelum projects, such as the Uri project, there may be a sudden increase in flow followed by a decrease. If that happens to regulate water, first impact will be on the river stretch within India. It may not be what happened recently, because Pakistani authorities, according to media reports, mentioned that such changes happen during this time of year, every year. So, these fluctuations are not unusual. But if changes are made, the immediate impact will be in India.
For example, with the Kishanganga project on a tributary of Jhelum, there’s an environmental flow stipulation that ensures the downstream river continues to have water. If India decides not to release this water, especially if the treaty is suspended, the impact will first be felt in India, as the river flows through India before reaching Pakistan.
So, whatever India does to regulate the flow of the western rivers to Pakistan, J&K will face the impact first, especially in the areas where the rivers flow through.
Does the current status of the treaty help us build more hydroelectric projects on these rivers?
That's what India is considering. For certain projects, like the Tulbul Navigation/Wular Barrage Project, India hasn't officially stated its plans, but some unofficial statements suggest that India could go ahead and build it. The project can be pursued; Pakistan will not be adversely affected in overall flow terms—there is no consumptive use of water. It's only a navigation project, which doesn’t consume water. The water that will be stored behind the barrage is just to maintain navigation in Wullar Lake. The total water flow into Pakistan will not be reduced or changed. This Tulbul Navigation project has been suspended since 1987, for nearly 38 years, so it may now be resumed.
Similarly, there are projects like the Ratle Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab and Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project on the Jhelum tributary, the latter of which has already been completed. Pakistan has objected to those projects. Ratle is still under construction, and India is continuing to build it because the treaty is under suspension. Kishanganga doesn’t require further work and can continue to be operated. There are also other projects India plans to pursue. Normally, these projects would require Pakistan's approval under the treaty, but since the treaty is now suspended, India may proceed with the construction of some of them without Pakistan’s consent.
What are Pakistan’s options moving forward in response to India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty?
There is no provision within the treaty for any suspension. However, there is the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows a country to withdraw from an agreement or treaty under certain circumstances. These circumstances include, for example, a change in the situation, violations of certain terms, and so on. India hopes to use this argument, but India is not a signatory to the Vienna Convention, while Pakistan has ratified it, though Pakistan’s Parliament has not yet passed it. So both countries are citing the convention, but it’s a grey area whether it will actually be helpful to India.
Pakistan wants to legally challenge India’s action of suspending the treaty. First, they would seek the World Bank's help to appoint a neutral expert. Second, they may approach the Court of Arbitration for resolution. Third, Pakistan will take up the issue directly to the International Court. Finally, they would raise the matter at the United Nations. But I'm not sure it will actually help. The World Bank, for example, has no authority to direct India to do anything. Its role is limited to mediation, such as appointing a neutral expert or referring the matter to a Court of Arbitration.
Can China play a role in controlling the flow of water into India? Could they threaten India in any way?
Two of the six tributaries of the Indus basin originate in China. One of them is the Satluj. The Satluj has a significant catchment area in China, particularly the Spiti River. Similarly, parts of the catchment area of the Indus basin are in China. China also has a small dam in that region. These are areas where China does have some influence.
As for the Yarlung Tsangpo tributary of the Brahmaputra River, China certainly has a larger influence, but to exert any real control, China would need significant infrastructure. As of now, China doesn't have the infrastructure to adversely affect India through the Yarlung Tsangpo, except for one or two run-of-the-river hydropower projects. These projects are unlikely to have a major impact on downstream India.
How does the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty affect the agriculture and economy of Pakistan?
It affects Pakistan very significantly because the Indus River is the lifeline of the country. Around 80% of their water comes from the Indus basin. While there is some water coming from Afghanistan, through the Kabul River, which is also a tributary of the Indus, and some rainfall within Pakistan, the majority of Pakistan’s irrigation, hydropower generation, electricity production, and overall development are heavily reliant on the Indus Basin. A significant portion of the electricity of Pakistan is generated in dams in the Indus Basin. By extension, Pakistan’s economy is also dependent on this river.
Has India ever come close to suspending the Indus Water Treaty before?
This treaty has never been suspended before. However, if you look at the developments over the last nine years, since 2016, there has been a growing buildup in this direction. After the Uri attack in 2016, the Prime Minister stated that "blood and water cannot flow together." Following the Pulwama attack in 2019, similar statements were made, such as "we will not allow a drop of water," and so on. Then, in early 2023, India sent a formal letter to Pakistan requesting a review of the treaty, which was in January 2023. By August 30, 2024, India sent another letter stating that, since Pakistan had not responded to the proposal for review and renegotiation, India was suspending the annual Indus Commission meetings. In fact, there have been no meetings since 2022. So, while there have been a series of developments since 2016, this is the first time India has actually suspended the treaty.
Can India completely cut off water to Pakistan?
No, we cannot consider our current infrastructure. We cannot stop the flow of water from any of the rivers, whether it’s the western rivers or their tributaries flowing to Pakistan. These include the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, as well as two tributaries of the Chenab and one of the Jhelum, which independently flow from India to Pakistan. As of now, we do not have the infrastructure to completely stop the water flow from any of these rivers. Do we have the necessary storage facilities for that? No, we do not. So, it’s not feasible with the current infrastructure, particularly with regard to the western rivers.