From missiles to oil choke points: How Iran could respond to US action | Explained

For close to five decades, Iran has structured its military doctrine around the prospect of confrontation with the United States. Aware it cannot rival Washington’s conventional strength, Tehran has instead invested in asymmetric capabilities designed to impose steep political, military and economic costs across the Middle East and beyond.

While diplomatic engagement continues intermittently, the United States has reinforced its air and naval presence in the region. President Donald Trump has hinted at regime change and signalled that military action remains an option, fuelling concerns of escalation.

Although Iran was weakened by Israeli and American strikes last summer and faces internal discontent, analysts argue that the leadership still commands several retaliatory tools. These range from direct missile and drone attacks on US and Israeli targets to activating allied armed groups and disrupting critical economic corridors. The scale of any response would likely hinge on how severe a threat Tehran believes it faces.

If Iran were to face a direct military strike, it has several potential avenues of response.

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Missiles and drones

Iran is thought to maintain thousands of missiles and drones capable of reaching US forces stationed across multiple Middle Eastern countries, as well as Israel. Tehran has repeatedly warned that American bases and regional partners would not be spared in the event of an assault.

In June 2025, after Israel launched a surprise operation against Iranian positions, Tehran responded with successive barrages of ballistic missiles and drones aimed at Israeli territory. Some projectiles penetrated Israel’s layered air defence systems, causing damage.

Iranian authorities insist that stockpiles expended in that exchange have since been replenished. US officials maintain that these weapons — alongside older Russian and American fighter aircraft still in service — remain credible threats.

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Among the most prominent systems is the Shahed suicide drone, which has been widely deployed in the Ukraine conflict. Iran has also developed and tested more than 20 ballistic missile variants, spanning short-, medium- and longer-range categories, with some assessed to have reach extending towards southern Europe.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently noted that roughly 30,000 to 40,000 American personnel are stationed across eight or nine facilities in the region, many of them within range of Iranian drones and short-range ballistic missiles.

Tehran has further demonstrated willingness to strike American assets directly. After US bombers targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure last summer, Iran launched missiles at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base — the largest US military installation in the Middle East — marking an unprecedented escalation.

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Mobilising allied groups

Over the past two years, Israel has inflicted heavy losses on Iran’s network of regional partners, limiting Tehran’s ability to project force beyond its borders.

Nevertheless, several organisations have pledged support if Iran comes under attack. Iraqi factions such as Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba — both of which have previously targeted US troops — have signalled readiness to act. Lebanon’s Hezbollah has issued similar assurances.

Yet these groups face practical and political constraints. Hezbollah, once regarded as the most formidable component of Iran’s regional axis, has been substantially degraded after 13 months of conflict with Israel and is now contending with a domestic campaign aimed at disarmament.

In Yemen, the Houthi movement has endured sustained strikes from both Israel and the United States. Despite this pressure, it remains a potent actor and has indicated it would stand by Tehran in a wider confrontation.

Economic pressure and maritime leverage

Iran has consistently warned that any full-scale war would reverberate far beyond the region. As a major energy producer positioned along the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow passageway through which over one-fifth of global oil supplies and substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas transit — Tehran possesses the capacity to disrupt a critical artery of world trade.

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Iranian officials have threatened to block the strait if attacked, a move experts caution could send fuel prices sharply higher and potentially trigger a broader economic downturn. While such action would also damage Iran’s own trade and that of neighbouring Gulf states, it remains one of Tehran’s most powerful deterrents.

The country says it operates underground naval facilities along its coastline, housing fast attack craft prepared for deployment across the Persian Gulf waters. Over three decades, Iran has expanded domestic production of vessels and submarines, accelerating efforts in anticipation of potential maritime confrontation.

Historical precedent underscores the risks. During the latter stages of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Tehran laid naval mines in Gulf waters, including near the Strait of Hormuz. In 1988, one such mine severely damaged the USS Samuel B. Roberts while it was escorting Kuwaiti tankers in what became known as the “Tanker War”.

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Tensions resurfaced in 2019, when several oil tankers were struck in the Gulf of Oman following Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran. Tehran was widely suspected of involvement.

More recently, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, Houthi forces disrupted commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, a corridor handling around 10% of global seaborne trade. Combined with Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, these levers grant Tehran disproportionate influence over global energy markets and supply chains.