US-Iran war: Brent crude above $100 | Will petrol prices rise in India?

Oil markets moved higher on Friday after tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, reversing sharp losses recorded earlier this week amid hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Brent crude remained above the psychologically significant $100 per barrel mark, trading at $101.6, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose nearly 2 per cent to $96.66 after earlier gains of around 3 per cent.

The renewed rise in prices followed retaliatory US military strikes on Iranian-linked targets after attacks on American forces in the region.

Why are oil prices rising again?

The latest rally came after the US military announced strikes on Iranian targets connected to attacks on US personnel. Iran, however, accused Washington of breaching the ceasefire and claimed American forces had targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz as well as civilian locations.

The developments reignited concerns about the stability of the Middle East and the security of global oil supply routes.

Only days earlier, oil prices had moved sharply lower after markets reacted positively to reports suggesting possible progress in US-Iran negotiations that could reopen shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Roughly one-fifth of global energy supplies pass through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international markets.

The ongoing conflict has disrupted tanker movement through the route, raising fears of tighter oil supply, higher transport costs and persistent inflationary pressure across economies worldwide.

Brent crude had surged above $115 a barrel earlier in the week before falling sharply on hopes of de-escalation. Prices later rebounded after Donald Trump warned that the United States would intensify military action if Iran rejected a proposed agreement.

Market concerns grow over suspicious trading activity

Alongside geopolitical tensions, concerns have also emerged over unusually timed trading activity linked to oil market movements.

According to Reuters, bets worth up to $7 billion were reportedly placed across multiple exchanges and oil-related derivatives ahead of major Iranian policy announcements by US President Donald Trump during March and April.

The scale of the trades has raised concerns about possible misuse of sensitive information. Reuters also reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is examining the trades, although no formal public investigation has been announced.

Tensions in the Middle East escalated significantly after the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28.

In response, Tehran tightened restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, creating uncertainty for global energy markets and increasing fears over prolonged disruptions to oil exports from the region.

Analysts warn that unless tensions ease and tanker movement resumes normally, crude prices could remain volatile in the coming weeks.