E-retail surge: Is India ready for a $180 billion market by 2030?

New Delhi: India’s online retail market 2025 has reached an estimated $65–66 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV), and is projected to grow at over 20 per cent annually, reaching $170–180 billion by 2030, according to a joint report by Bain & Company and Flipkart released on Thursday.

The report highlighted that India’s e‑retail GMV 2025 grew 19–21 per cent year-on-year, with growth accelerating in the latter half of the year, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions, rising consumer sentiment, and strong private consumption. Private consumption growth rose from 8 per cent (2022–24) to 10.5 per cent in 2025, supported by GST cuts, income tax relief, easing inflation, and lower lending rates.

Second-half 2025 growth reached 22–24 per cent, while early 2026 (Q1) saw an estimated 23–25 per cent growth, signalling a revival in discretionary spending.

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Q-commerce—ultra-fast delivery within 30 minutes—doubled annually over the past two years, achieving $10–11 billion GMV in 2025, with projections to reach $65–70 billion by 2030. Traditional e-retail, however, will remain the backbone of the sector, accounting for 60–65 per cent of the overall e-retail market by 2030.

India is emerging as a global consumption powerhouse, expected to capture 1 in 8 incremental consumption dollars globally over the next five years. The online shopper base more than doubled over five years to 290–300 million in 2025, supported by a rapidly expanding seller ecosystem and deeper geographic penetration.

Gen Z consumers accounted for 40–45 per cent of e‑retail shoppers and contributed roughly half of incremental orders in 2025. Spending per shopper among Gen Z grew 2.5 times faster than other cohorts in metropolitan cities, driven by trends in lifestyle, beauty, and electronics, as well as influencer-led social media engagement, immersive video feeds, and use of instant credit.

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“Shopping behaviour in quick commerce is distinct; high-intent missions result in faster search, quicker checkout, and higher conversion rates. Sessions last less than five minutes, roughly half the duration of traditional e-commerce journeys,” said Manan Bhasin.

With this trajectory, India’s e-commerce market in 2030 is poised to remain a key driver of economic growth, digital adoption, and global retail trends.

IANS