Will exit poll predictions come true? In 2021, it failed in Kerala and Bengal

New Delhi: As political circles actively debate whether exit polls indicating a change of government in Kerala and West Bengal will come true, data shows that many exit polls in both states missed the mark in 2021.

In West Bengal in 2021, almost all agencies predicted a victory for the Trinamool Congress, but suggested a neck-and-neck contest between the BJP and Trinamool. However, when the actual results came, the Trinamool Congress swept the state.

In 2016 too, predictions pointed to a close fight between the Left-Congress alliance and the Trinamool Congress. Yet again, Trinamool emerged victorious. This time, many exit polls predict a BJP victory, but the Trinamool Congress claims that such predictions lack accuracy and will not materialise.

In Kerala as well, exit polls in 2021 predicted a majority for the Left Democratic Front, but did not indicate the scale of the wave. When the results were declared, it turned out to be a strong Left wave, with the LDF winning 99 seats. However, in Tamil Nadu and Assam, exit polls in 2021 were largely accurate.

In Kerala’s 140-member Assembly, 71 seats are needed for a majority. In 2021, most agencies predicted an average of around 80 seats for the LDF. Only the ‘Today’s Chanakya’ agency came close to the actual result, predicting between 93 and 111 seats for the LDF. This time, the average prediction is that the UDF will win around 80 seats, with some agencies projecting up to 90.

In West Bengal’s 294-member Assembly, 148 seats are required for a simple majority. In 2021, most agencies predicted around 160–164 seats for the Trinamool. One agency that predicted a BJP victory gave it up to 185 seats, while others projected up to 160 for the BJP. However, the final result gave the Trinamool Congress 215 seats and the BJP 77.

Here too, ‘Today’s Chanakya’ was among the closest to the actual outcome, predicting up to 191 seats for the Trinamool Congress and between 97 and 119 seats for the BJP.

This time, looking at the overall projections in Bengal, indications point to a tight contest. While several agencies predict a slight edge for the BJP, others foresee a majority for the Trinamool. Analysts also note that, unlike previous elections, SIR (Special Intensive Revision) could have a decisive impact on the Bengal election results.