Kerala Pre Poll survey: Who is leading in 35 crucial assembly seats

With Kerala set to go to the State Assembly polls on 9 April, a pre-poll survey by Citizens Opinion Research and Evaluation (CORE) for Mathrubhumi offers an early snapshot of the state's political mood. The survey provides insights into voter preferences and the relative standing of the major alliances across the state.

The Kerala pre-poll survey engaged 31,706 respondents across all 140 constituencies between 23 and 30 March. Its primary aim was to assess public sentiment and evaluate the performance of political alliances ahead of the elections. Participants were asked a decisive question: which alliance's candidate do you want to win in your constituency?

To make sense of the numbers, the survey divides leads into three brackets. A margin under 2.5% indicates a "Tight Fight," a lead between 2.51% and 4% suggests a "Slight Advantage," while any lead above 4% is seen as a "Strong Possibility" for the leading alliance to retain or capture the seat.

Based on the Day 3 pre-poll survey data, here is the constituency-wise breakdown for the 35 seats:

1. Dharmadam: A strong possibility for the LDF. Pinarayi Vijayan (CPM) leads with 57.38%, followed by the UDF's Abdul Rasheed (INC) at 32.33% and the NDA's K. Ranjith (BJP) at 10.29%. Lead: 25.05%.
2. Udumbanchola: A strong possibility for the LDF. K.K. Jayachandran (CPM) leads with 46.68%, followed by the UDF's Senapathy Venu (INC) at 40.69% and the NDA's Sangeetha Viswanathan (BDJS) at 12.63%. Lead: 5.99%.
3. Chavara: A strong possibility for the UDF. Shibu Baby John (RSP) leads with 46.79%, followed by the LDF's Dr Sujith Vijayan (CPM-IND) at 42.85% and the NDA's KR Rajesh (BJP) at 10.36%. Lead: 3.94%.
4. Kattakkada: A tight fight. Adv IB Satheesh (CPM) leads with 38.37%, followed by the UDF's MR Baiju (INC) at 35.87% and the NDA's PK Krishnadas (BJP) at 25.76%. Lead: 2.5%.
5. Punalur: A strong possibility for the LDF. Ajay Prasad C (CPI) leads with 50.28%, followed by the UDF's Noushad Yunus (IUML) at 34.86% and the NDA's B Raghunathan Pillai (Twenty20) at 14.86%. Lead: 15.42%.
6. Nedumangad: A strong possibility for the LDF. GR Anil (CPI) leads with 48%, followed by the UDF's Meenankal Kumar (INC) at 36.44% and the NDA's Yuvaraj Gokul (BJP) at 15.56%. Lead: 11.56%.
7. Konni: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv KU Jenish Kumar (CPM) leads with 49.62%, followed by the UDF's Prof. Sathish Kochuparambil (INC) at 36.72% and the NDA's T.P. Sundaresan (BDJS) at 13.66%. Lead: 12.9%.
8. Kaduthuruthy: A strong possibility for the UDF. Mons Joseph (KC-J) leads with 50.32%, followed by the LDF's Nirmala Jimmy (KC-M) at 41.58% and the NDA's Suresh Ittikkunnel (BDJS) at 8.1%. Lead: 8.74%.
9. Tripunithura: A strong possibility for the UDF. Deepak Joy (INC) leads with 44.38%, followed by the LDF's KN Unnikrishnan (CPI) at 41.39% and the NDA's Anjali Nair (Twenty20) at 14.23%. Lead: 2.99%.
10. Idukki: A strong possibility for the UDF. Roy K Paulose (INC) leads with 46.36%, followed by the LDF's Roshy Augustine (KC-M) at 43.56% and the NDA's Adv. Pratheesh Prabha (BDJS) at 10.08%. Lead: 2.8%.
11. Nadapuram: A strong possibility for the UDF. Abhijith (INC) leads with 48.72%, followed by the LDF's P Vasantham (CPI) at 44.36% and the NDA's C. Vipin Chandran (BJP) at 6.92%. Lead: 4.36%.
12. Thrikkakara: A strong possibility for the UDF. Uma Thomas (INC) leads with 52.74%, followed by the LDF's Adv Pushpa Das (CPM) at 33.72% and the NDA's Akhil Marar (Twenty20) at 13.54%. Lead: 19.02%.
13. Parassala: A strong possibility for the LDF. CK Hareendran (CPM) leads with 50.36%, followed by the UDF's Neyyattinkara Sanal (INC) at 32.13% and the NDA's Adv. Gireesh Neyyar (BJP) at 17.51%. Lead: 18.23%.
14. Perambra: A strong possibility for the LDF. TP Ramakrishnan (CPM) leads with 48.64%, followed by the UDF's Fathima Thahiliya (IUML) at 41.91% and the NDA's Mohanan Master (BJP) at 9.45%. Lead: 6.73%.
15. Chadayamangalam: A strong possibility for the LDF. J Chinchu Rani (CPI) leads with 46.06%, followed by the UDF's MM Nazeer (INC) at 40.81% and the NDA's RS Arun Raj (BJP) at 13.13%. Lead: 5.25%.
16. Manjeshwar: A strong possibility for the UDF. AKM Ashraf (IUML) leads with 40.54%, followed by the NDA's K. Surendran (BJP) at 37.1% and the LDF's KR Jayananda (CPM) at 22.36%. Lead: 3.44%.
17. Taliparamba: A strong possibility for the LDF. PK Shyamala Teacher (CPM) leads with 50.14%, followed by the UDF's K Govindan (INC-IND) at 41.36% and the NDA's N Haridas (BJP) at 8.5%. Lead: 8.78%.
18. Kunnamangalam: A strong possibility for the UDF. MA Razak (IUML) leads with 43.31%, followed by the LDF's PTA Rahim (CPM-IND) at 40.11% and the NDA's V.K. Sajeevan (BJP) at 16.58%. Lead: 3.2%.
19. Pattambi: A strong possibility for the LDF. Muhammed Muhsin (CPI) leads with 48.58%, followed by the UDF's TP Shaji (INC) at 42.69% and the NDA's Adv. P Manoj (BJP) at 8.73%. Lead: 5.89%.
20. Attingal: A strong possibility for the LDF. OS Ambika (CPM) leads with 47.24%, followed by the NDA's Adv P Sudheer (BJP) at 26.92% and the UDF's Santhosh Bhadran (RSP) at 25.84%. Lead: 20.32%.
21. Kuttanad: A strong possibility for the UDF. Reji Cherian (KC-J) leads with 49.73%, followed by the LDF's Thomas K Thomas (NCP-SP) at 37.67% and the NDA's Santhosh Shanti (BDJS) at 12.6%. Lead: 12.06%.
22. Aluva: A strong possibility for the UDF. Anwar Sadath (INC) leads with 47.18%, followed by the LDF's Adv. AM Ariff (CPM) at 39.54% and the NDA's MA Brahmaraj (BJP) at 13.28%. Lead: 7.64%.
23. Vengara: A strong possibility for the UDF. KM Shaji (IUML) leads with 54.43%, followed by the LDF's Muhammed Sabah (CPM-IND) at 40.61% and the NDA's Jayakrishnan V.N. (BJP) at 4.96%. Lead: 13.82%.
24. Ollur: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv K Rajan (CPI) leads with 53.94%, followed by the UDF's Shaji J. Kodankandath (INC) at 36.62% and the NDA's Bijoy Thomas (BJP) at 9.44%. Lead: 17.32%.
25. Mannarkkad: A strong possibility for the UDF. Adv. N Shamsudheen (IUML) leads with 48.11%, followed by the LDF's Aboobacker (CPI) at 41.91% and the NDA's Isaac Varghese (BDJS) at 9.98%. Lead: 6.2%.
26. Tirur: A strong possibility for the UDF. Kurukkoli Moideen (IUML) leads with 47.62%, followed by the LDF's V Abdurahiman (CPM) at 43.78% and the NDA's VK Narayanan Master (BJP) at 8.6%. Lead: 3.84%.
27. Thalassery: A strong possibility for the LDF. Karayi Rajan (CPM) leads with 49.59%, followed by the UDF's KP Saju (INC) at 34.26% and the NDA's O Nidheesh (BJP) at 16.15%. Lead: 15.33%.
28. Wandoor: A strong possibility for the UDF. AP Anil Kumar (INC) leads with 54.9%, followed by the LDF's Dr K.K. Damodaran Master (CPM) at 40.16% and the NDA's EP Kumaradas (JRS) at 4.94%. Lead: 14.74%.
29. Kannur: A Tight Fight. Adv. TO Mohanan (INC) leads with 46.48%, followed by the LDF's Ramachandran Kadannappally at 44.54% and the NDA's C Raghunath (BJP) at 8.98%. Lead: 1.94%.
30. Perinthalmanna: A strong possibility for the UDF. Najeeb Kanthapuram (IUML) leads with 52.71%, followed by the LDF's VP Muhammed Haneefa (CPM) at 40.69% and the NDA's Adv. KP Baburaj (BJP) at 6.6%. Lead: 12.02%.
31. Kozhikode North: A strong possibility for the LDF. Thottathil Raveendran (CPM) leads with 41.23%, followed by the UDF's K Jayanth (INC) at 38.26% and the NDA's Navya Haridas (BJP) at 20.51%. Lead: 2.97%.
32. Tarur: A strong possibility for the LDF. PP Sumod (CPM) leads with 49.56%, followed by the UDF's KC Subramanian (INC) at 36.18% and the NDA's Suresh Babu (BJP) at 14.26%. Lead: 13.38%.
33. Irinjalakuda: A strong possibility for the LDF. Dr R Bindu (CPM) leads with 41.78%, followed by the UDF's Adv Thomas Unniyadan (KC-J) at 34.98% and the NDA's Santhosh Cherakulam (BJP) at 23.24%. Lead: 6.8%.
34. Aranmula: A Tight Fight. Abin Varkey (UDF) leads with 40.44%, followed by the LDF's Veena George (CPM) at 38.04% and the NDA's Kummanam Rajasekharan (BJP) at 21.52%. Lead: 2.4%.
35. Kottakkal: A strong possibility for the UDF. Prof. Abid Hussain Thangal (IUML) leads with 54.63%, followed by the LDF's K Preethi (CPM) at 38.47% and the NDA's C. Subramanian (BDJS) at 6.9%. Lead: 16.16%.

The last-day poll picture for 35 constituencies has been released. The survey covering the remaining 35 seats of the 140-member Assembly will be published tomorrow.