Kerala Pre Poll survey: UDF’s AKM Ashraf leads in Manjeshwar; BJP’s Surendran second

Manjeshwar, Kerala: As Kerala gears up for the State Assembly elections on April 9, a pre-poll survey conducted by Citizens Opinion Research and Evaluation (CORE) for Mathrubhumi provides an early snapshot of the contest in the Manjeshwar constituency.

The survey indicates a close fight, with UDF candidate AKM Ashraf (IUML) leading with 40.54% voter support, followed by NDA’s K. Surendran (BJP) at 37.1% and LDF’s KR Jayanandan (CPM) at 22.36%, giving Ashraf a slim lead of 3.44%.

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Manjeshwar, located in Kasaragod district along the Karnataka border, has historically been an IUML bastion, though the political landscape has grown more competitive in recent years due to the BJP’s steady rise in north Kerala. The 2016 election saw K. Surendran narrowly lose by just 89 votes, underscoring how small shifts in voter support can determine the outcome.

Ashraf, the sitting MLA, enters the race with a local advantage, buoyed by recent local body election results that suggest strong UDF support. Surendran’s return gives the NDA hope of converting past near-misses into a victory, while the LDF remains a potential spoiler with Jayanandan in the fray.

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The constituency’s electoral dynamics are further complicated by smaller groups like the SDPI and local organisations such as the Konkani Latin Christian Association, whose potential candidature could influence vote shares in key panchayats, including Enmakaje, Kumbla, Mangalpady, Manjeswaram, Meenja, Paivalike, Puthige, and Vorkady.

With its history of razor-thin margins and a fragmented voter base, Manjeshwar is expected to be one of the most closely watched constituencies in the upcoming Kerala Assembly elections.

Polling for the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly elections will be held on April 9, with counting scheduled for May 4. The current assembly’s tenure concludes on May 23.