Who will rule Tamil Nadu? Surveys show DMK, NDA, TVK standings

Chennai: The ruling DMK-led alliance is projected to retain power in Tamil Nadu with a comfortable majority, according to two pre-poll surveys released ahead of the April 23 Assembly elections.

A survey by Lok Poll indicates a decisive edge for the alliance led by M. K. Stalin, projecting 181–189 seats out of 234 constituencies with a 40.1 per cent vote share. In comparison, the AIADMK-led NDA is expected to secure only 38–42 seats with a 29 per cent vote share.

Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), contesting its first election, is projected to win 8–10 seats with a 23.9 per cent vote share. The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) and other smaller parties are unlikely to make a major impact, with estimated vote shares of 4.9 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively.

The survey also finds Stalin to be the most preferred chief ministerial candidate, followed by Vijay and AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami.

"The DMK alliance is clearly ahead, mainly because of its strong welfare schemes like Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai, free bus travel, and the breakfast scheme. These have especially connected well with women in rural and semi-urban areas, giving DMK a solid advantage," the Lok Poll survey said.

It further noted that the "biggest advantage" for the DMK lies in the division of opposition votes between the NDA and TVK.

According to the survey, Vijay’s party is drawing notable support from younger and first-time voters, as well as those dissatisfied with the government. However, it cautioned that this backing may not translate into significant seat gains due to TVK contesting independently.

"Edappadi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK is struggling internally. Party splits, loss of key leaders, and weak cadre morale are affecting its performance, especially in Delta and southern districts," the survey said.

A separate survey by Poll Tracker also predicts a strong return for the DMK alliance, estimating 172–178 seats and a higher vote share of 42.7 per cent. The AIADMK is projected to trail with 46–52 seats.

The Poll Tracker survey suggests that TVK could secure 6–12 seats with a 19.2 per cent vote share, while NTK may win 0–2 seats with 5.1 per cent votes.

It also highlights that the AIADMK-BJP alliance may have led to a consolidation of minority votes against the front. Additionally, several communities, including Mudaliars, Naidus, and Muslims, are seen to be broadly favouring the DMK alliance.

"In terms of public perception, MK Stalin tends to be seen by a section of voters as a more familiar and established leader compared to Edappadi K Palaniswami and Vijay," the Poll Tracker survey said.