Russia-Ukraine war: India has much at stake, says TP Sreenivasan

Kozhikode: ''The ongoing Russia- Ukraine war has deeper and wider connotations for India,'' says TP Sreenivasan, former Indian ambassador to US.

“Our apparent stance is pro Russia. However, it is pertinent to note that earlier this month Russia and China formed an alliance. Pakistan PM Imran Khan is now in Moscow. So if Pakistan, China and Russia decide to join their hands, then we are going to be in trouble. If Pakistan and China open a front against India, then it will be an immediate problem. Similarly, there will be ripples in the economy due to the war like every other country,” he said.

“Likewise, US has now conveyed the message that India is on the wrong side of history over the matter. That also suggests they are stepping back from relations with India. And how we will counter Pakistan and China will be another question,” he added.  

Sreenivasan was speaking to Mathrubhumi English, over telephone on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.  

“Putin's objective is not destroying the pieces of Ukraine. His initial intent was to bring them under the influence of Russia.  Now he has expanded that wish and his move suggests that he wants to bring back the old Soviet Union,'' he said  

Commenting on Putin's recent remarks “what is now happening in Donbas is genocide'', Sreenivasan said that such statements are pushed into the limelight to legitimize the need for war. However, he pointed out that earlier too Russia had made such remarks regarding Donbas and they used to send troops and give ammunition in support of pro-Russia separatist group. Notably, it is for the same region that Putin in the early morning of Thursday gave the nod for special military operation, which apparently was a declaration of the war.    

According to Sreenivasan, Putin even before the apparent call for the war made it clear that he is going to respond to destruction caused to the Soviet Union and communism in history. “Putin's aim is to regain the old autonomous stature of the Soviet Union. At this juncture we cannot actually predict to what extent he will pursue that aim. If Ukraine surrenders tensions will end. However, I don't think they will surrender. So the question on how long the crisis prolongs remains unanswered,” he remarked.

Sreenivasan said that US President Joe Biden's sanctions against Russia in lieu of demands raised by Putin will not worry the latter. “US did not say they will engage in war,” he pinpointed. He added that as the US has not conveyed its interest to counter Russia with war, no other countries will step in. “Even the chance of Germany or France stepping in is bleak,” he said.  

Similarly, Sreenivasan commented about what message Putin has for NATO. According to him, Putin has wanted NATO to withdraw its deployments since 2017, when old Russian-Soviet Union countries like Romania, Poland, Czechoslovakia joined NATO. “Not just Soviet Union countries, but also a total of 14 countries joined NATO. Putin does not find such an expansion of NATO as something desirable,” he said.  

Sreenivasan rules out any concrete action by the UN. “The world organisation will intervene if there is a Security Council's resolution. Russia is a permanent member in the Council, it has veto. More than that, for the month of February, the presidency of the Security Council is with the Russian Federation itself. Similarly, even if the General Assembly takes up the resolution, Russia is not obliged to follow the advice as such resolutions are not mandatory to be followed”, he said.