Pathanamthitta: LDF and NDA fight it hard to wrest the seat from the UDF

Pathanamthitta: The occasional respite from the scorching summer heat fails to bring peace of mind to supporters of the major political parties in the Pathanamthitta constituency. They know there is no rest till the polling is over. The CPM appears to have a significant edge in campaigning, thanks to their well oiled party organisational structure. Posters featuring Thomas Isaac, former finance minister and the LDF candidate are there in every nook and corner of the constituency. All the seven assembly constituencies in Pathanamthitta went to the Left in the last assembly election. But when it comes to the Lok sabha elections the voters seem to have a different orientation. Ever since delimitation in 2008, the scales have consistently tipped in favor of the Congress. The consecutive  victories of Anto Antony  in the last three general elections of 2009, 2014, and 2019 reaffirm this trend. In 2019, Veena George of the CPM and K Surendran of the BJP secured the second and third positions, respectively.

This time the scenario appears a little complicated given the fact that there has been some dip in the popularity of the UDF candidate. While Anto Antony, with a track record of hatrick victories, holds a slight advantage, Thomas Isaac is seen as a close contender. The CPM could potentially narrow the gap with the Congress at any point, with their campaign machinery in full swing. Anil Antony, the son of veteran Congress leader A K Antony, is expected to secure third place in the elections, although the BJP has unleashed a terrific campaign across the constituency.

Interestingly all the major parties have fielded candidates from the christian community. Pathanamthitta has a sizable presence of Christians, particularly in the Poonjar and Kanjirappally assembly segments. Their voting patterns had often swayed election outcomes in the past. The victory of Veena George MLA over former MLA Sivadasan Nair in the 2016 assembly election serves as a pertinent example.

The Orthodox Christian community's support played a pivotal role in securing MLA Veena George's initial victory in the Vidhan Sabha. The Congress party remains optimistic, anticipating significant support from religious voters who they think will cast their votes in favour of Anto. A local leader of the Congress party confidently stated, "UDF will undoubtedly continue its winning streak, with an even larger margin this time. The concern of vote splitting is not on our radar. It's highly unlikely to occur with the current candidates."

Adoor and Konni are seen as strong bastions of the CPM compared to the other assembly constituencies. However, the Sabarimala issue significantly boosted BJP votes in the previous general election, with the party fielding K Surendran, the BJP state  president, as its candidate.

Several local shop owners in the Kulanada region ( Kozhencherry Taluk) of the constituency harbor high expectations for the BJP. This sentiment is palpable as the area is a stronghold of the BJP. One can see waiting sheds and ambulances of the Sevabharati in this region. Additionally, there is a lengthy roster of 'former Marxists' from this area who have now become staunch supporters of the BJP.  A shop owner in the vicinity commented, "Campaigning is relatively slow this time. The economy and the weather are preventing the workers from unleashing a high voltage campaign."

"All former leaders must be replaced. We are interested in the youth, regardless of party affiliation. Anil Antony should be assessed individually in this context. Being a youth, he is likely to be proactive. Prioritizing local development is crucial. Moreover, it is advantageous to have MPs from the ruling party at the Center. Anto Antony only shows up to shake hands before the election; he is nowhere to be found afterward. The installation of one or two high mast lights in nearby areas is insufficient. Candidates like N K Premachandran are exceptions; they understand how to represent the people. Unfortunately, Congress lacks good leadership," another shop owner gave vent to his feelings.

Regarding the chances for Anil's victory, he responded, "It's hard to say. There are individuals within the BJP who oppose Anil Antony. In India, whenever someone rises, others try to pull them down, and it's no different here." The assistant to the shop owner added, "Most MPs lack proficiency in English, making communication in formal meetings challenging. The primary issue is incompetence, not education level. Look at Modi; despite his education, people still listen to him, unlike Rahul Gandhi's speeches. Using complex English words like Shashi Tharoor is unnecessary. Political parties should no longer be the focus; instead, vote for promising individuals. Anto Antony won't accomplish much even if he wins again."

While there is optimism surrounding Anil Antony, there appears to be a pervasive indifference within the BJP towards him. Many people feel that his outburst against his father A K Antony was out of place. Most of the pre-poll surveys predict a fourth term victory for the UDF, with the LDF trailing in second place and the NDA in third.

A 28-year-old individual, formerly a DYFI unit secretary, who has been vigorously campaigning for Thomas Isaac, exuded confidence in the LDF's victory. "We anticipate victory in Pathanamthitta, although the competition is fierce. This sentiment resonates similarly in both Pathanamthitta and Mavelikkara. You can feel it when you interact with voters at their homes. Anto Antony's influence seems to be waning, despite the church's support for him. The public sentiment is turning against him. Since both Anto Antony and Thomas Issac are Christians, their religious background may not carry as much weight as before. Anil Antony seems to have a minimal impact on this election. However, in Mavelikkara, the direction of BJP votes remains uncertain. They may sway towards Kodikunnil, possibly due to the influence of the Nair community. A similar trend is expected in Changanassery and Kottarakkara. Nonetheless, our campaign efforts are progressing well."

As campaigning reaches its crescendo, the political pulse of Pathanamthitta beats with anticipation, poised to witness a contest that could reshape its political landscape. In the face of competing narratives and shifting allegiances, the electorate prepares to cast their votes, which will decide the trajectory of Pathanamthitta for the next five years.