T20 World Cup: How does Sanju Samson’s strike rate influence India’s win probability?
Sanju Samson has made the Twenty20 World Cup cut. By his own right, as an opener and stumper. The selection committee has made it abundantly clear that they do not want anyone at the top of the order - to walk out with the hefty hitter Abhishek Sharma - displaying the yellow light in the first six- over power play overs in the high-octane competition to be played in India and Sri Lanka. India's opening campaign is against the USA on February 7 at the Wankhede Stadium.
A batter who has the capacity to hit blinders in the shortest form of the game, Samson played his first Twenty20 international (India debut) in July 2015 against Zimbabwe at Harare. He did not get to bat in his first appearance for the men on the blue team. His next chance came - strangely after a gap of four and a half years. That was against Sri Lanka at Pune. And yet again, he did not get to bat.
Samson has turned out for India in 52 matches (44 innings) and scored 1032 runs at 25.80, facing 697 balls. Filter the numbers to the opener's slot and his numbers appear bright, not spectacular though, with 559 runs at 32.68 at 10.68 an over. As an opener, he was at his best in 2024 with 356 runs at 52.29 off 185 balls with a scoring rate of 11.87.
These numbers alone should have clinched him a place as a partner to Abhishek. A poor run in six innings this year made his place as an opener doubtful, but Shubman Gill's unsatisfactory displays and a toe injury in the series against South Africa gave an opening for Samson in the last match at Ahmedabad, and he sealed his place in the top order. Even without a decent score, he would have been chosen as a partner to Abhishek.
The Abhishek-Samson pair ripped off 63 runs off 34 balls against South Africa at the NAMO stadium. The rousing stand enabled the home team to post 231. In the previous match at Dharamshala, Gill and Abhishek gave a 60-run start off 32 balls. In the first two matches at Cuttack and Mohali, it was single-digit starts of 5 and 9. The selection committee and team management must have decided after the second match that Samson has to come in.
An interesting piece of statistics is that after his debut in 2015, Samson has missed 157 matches, and the men in blue team's win percentage was 69.23, and in the 52 matches he has played, India's win percentage is 78.85!
Samson was not a fixture from 2015 to 2023 - but he played 13 matches in 2024 and has played 15 this year. His bold and brave batting in 2024 lifted his scoring rate to 10.68, with only Abhishek placed at a superior 11.42.
Rohit Sharma (retired now from the shortest format) is the highest scorer with 1517 runs at 8.85 as an opener from Samson's second match onwards for India. He is followed by K.L. Rahul (1082 runs at 7.93), Gill (873 runs at 8.35), Yashasvi Jaiswal (723 runs at 9.86), and Ishan Kishan (662 runs at 7.34).
The selectors recalled Gill as vice-captain from the three-match series in Australia, in fact, from the Asia Cup in Dubai. In 15 matches this year, he has scored a mere 291 at 24.25 at 8.24 an over. The committee and the team management, under head coach Gautam Gambhir and captain Suryakumar Yadav (himself going through a lean trot), applied the indispensability rule to pair Abhishek and Samson for the Twenty20 World Cup. India is the defending champion.
Abhishek and Samson have opened in thirteen innings and scored 330 runs at 25.38, with 73 as their best stand. Compare these numbers to Gill and Abhishek's 560 in 17 innings at 35.00 and Gill and Jaiswal's 527 in 10 innings at 58.56. The numbers will pick - not Abhishek and Samson, but Gill and Jaiswal.
But the selection committee has gone for Abhishek and Samson purely by their individual scoring rate, much of it in the six-over power play. Abhishek's is 11.42, and Samson's is 10.68. Samson doesn't fit in anywhere other than at the top, and taking chances against the new ball in the power play. Only six times though he has faced more than 25 balls, and when he did that, his team won all eight matches.
The Abhishek-Samson pair will get a dry run against New Zealand that is scheduled to play five Twenty20 matches at Nagpur, Raipur, Guwahati, Visakhapatnam and Thiruvananthapuram. Samson has played two matches against New Zealand, and his scores were 8 and 2, both in New Zealand. And Abhishek is yet to mark his block against New Zealand.
Abhishek has hit 107x 4s and 73 x 6s, while Samson has struck 82x 4s and 58x 6s. In the preliminary stage, India will get a chance to warm up against teams like USA, Namibia and the Netherlands; the fourth match will be against Pakistan in Colombo. The onus is on Samson to show his mettle in his first World Cup tournament.