Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize chances are slim, yet deciding country fears fallout if he loses-know why
The Nobel week 2025 kicks off on October 6, leading up to the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize this Friday, October 10. Valued at $1.1 million, the award honours those who strive to foster friendship between nations, reduce standing armies, and promote peace talks. Nobel, inspired by peace activist Bertha von Suttner, set the prize to recognise the most effective efforts for global harmony. The winner is chosen by an independent committee appointed by Norway’s Parliament.
Why does Trump think he deserves it?
US President Donald Trump is leaving no stone unturned in his bid. Publicly and behind the scenes, he claims he should have won four or five times already. He points to ending at least six or seven conflicts—including one between India and Pakistan in May—and highlights the Abraham Accords that normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations in 2020. Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, he declared that everyone agrees he deserves the award.
Trump’s team has also been busy lobbying. His Middle East special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has raised the issue in private talks with European officials and urged the Nobel committee to finally get its act together. Trump even reached out to Norway’s former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to discuss the prize.
How strong is his 2025 chance?
Despite the hype, experts say his chances are slim. The nomination deadline for the 2025 prize was January 31. While Republican Congresswoman Claudia Tenney nominated him for his work on the Abraham Accords, endorsements from Pakistan and Cambodia came too late and will count only for 2026.
One Ukrainian official initially nominated Trump but later tried to withdraw the nomination after losing faith in him. Critics also question his claims of ending conflicts, arguing his involvement was limited or the disputes were minor.
Why a win seems unlikely
Observers describe Trump’s bid as a long shot. His loud, self-promoting style clashes with the quiet, understated culture of Nordic societies. Norway tends to favour subtlety and collective effort over flamboyant claims.
Historically, the prize rewards sustained, multilateral initiatives. Many argue Trump’s diplomacy lacks these qualities. Adding to the doubts, the Peace Research Institute Oslo’s shortlist for 2025 does not include him, and most members of the five-person Nobel committee reportedly oppose his nomination.
What if Trump loses?
Norway is cautious about potential fallout. Trump has warned that losing would be seen as a big insult to our country.
History shows the risks. In 2010, when a Chinese dissident won, China froze ties and trade talks with Norway for six years, harming local industries. Norway is already dealing with US tariffs of 15% on imports. Any further backlash—like more tariffs or restrictions on Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund—would be an unwanted complication.