Iceland says ‘No’ to EU talks: What made voters turn down a return to negotiations?

Reykjavik: Icelanders have rejected a proposal to resume negotiations on joining the European Union, dealing a setback to the government in Reykjavik and disappointing Brussels, which had hoped to bring the wealthy Nordic nation back into the accession process.

In Saturday’s referendum, 52.8% voted against restarting EU talks, while 47.2% supported the proposal, according to the final results published by Iceland’s public broadcaster RUV.

But what exactly was Iceland voting on, and why does EU membership remain such a divisive issue in the country?

What was the referendum about?

Voters were asked whether the country should restart membership negotiations with the bloc, which were suspended in 2013.

The referendum was non-binding, but Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir’s government had promised to respect the result.

The ‘No’ vote means the EU membership question is unlikely to return to Iceland’s political agenda during Frostadottir’s current term, which runs until 2028.

Why did Iceland apply to join the EU?

Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009, following a devastating financial crisis that severely affected its economy.

Membership talks progressed before being suspended in 2013 after a eurosceptic government came to power.

The country has remained closely connected to the EU despite not being a member. Iceland is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), giving it access to the EU single market, and is also part of the Schengen free-movement area.

These arrangements will remain unchanged following the referendum.

Why is fishing such a big issue?

One of the biggest obstacles to EU membership is Iceland’s fishing industry.

Fishing is not only an important part of the country’s economy but is closely linked to Icelandic national identity. Many in the sector fear that joining the EU could weaken Iceland’s control over its fishing resources.

Around 90% of companies in Iceland’s fisheries sector are opposed to EU membership, according to the campaign cited by AFP.

The EU had attempted to address these concerns. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Brussels was prepared to explore “creative solutions” that recognised Iceland’s specific circumstances, particularly regarding fisheries and agriculture.

However, the offer failed to convince enough voters.

What were the other arguments against joining?

The debate went beyond fishing.

Opponents of restarting negotiations argued that Iceland should retain control over its economic and political affairs rather than transfer some powers to EU institutions.

Economic concerns also played a role, while wider geopolitical developments including Russia’s war in Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s interest in neighbouring Greenland featured in the campaign.

The referendum also became a debate about Iceland’s broader place in an increasingly uncertain international environment.

What does the ‘No’ vote mean for the EU?

For Brussels, the result is a disappointment.

The EU had hoped that restarting negotiations could eventually lead to Iceland becoming a new, wealthy member and strengthen the bloc’s presence in the strategically important Arctic region.

Iceland could also have served as an example of successful EU enlargement, particularly as the bloc considers applications from countries with lower incomes.

The vote also means that any future discussions on Icelandic membership will have to wait, at least until the current government’s mandate ends in 2028.

Will Iceland leave its existing relationship with the EU?

No.

Iceland is not an EU member, but its relationship with the bloc is already close.

Through the EEA, Iceland participates in the EU single market, while its membership of the Schengen area allows passport-free movement across participating European countries.

The referendum was specifically about restarting accession talks, not withdrawing from these existing arrangements.

What happens next?

For now, there will be no return to EU membership negotiations.

Frostadottir, who personally backed the ‘Yes’ campaign, had already said that Iceland would remain stable regardless of the result. She also indicated that a ‘No’ vote would mean the EU membership question would not be revived during her term.

The vote nevertheless exposed how sharply divided Iceland remains. Turnout stood at 82.5%, the highest participation in an Icelandic vote since the parliamentary elections held during the 2009 financial crisis.

For the EU, meanwhile, the result is another reminder that even a country already deeply integrated with the bloc’s economy may remain reluctant to surrender greater political control to Brussels.

(AFP)