Global air travel to more than double by 2050: IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050, highlighting strong long-term growth for the aviation sector despite economic and environmental challenges.

According to IATA’s latest Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP), global passenger traffic is expected to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by 2050 under the most likely scenario. This represents a steady annual growth rate of 3.1%, compared to around 9 trillion RPKs in 2024.

In a more optimistic scenario, demand could grow even faster at 3.3% annually, reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs. On the other hand, a slower growth scenario still estimates demand at 19.5 trillion RPKs, growing at 2.9% per year.

The report highlights that growth will not be uniform across regions. Emerging markets are expected to lead the expansion. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to grow the fastest at 3.8% annually, followed by Africa at 3.6%. In contrast, mature markets such as Europe and North America are expected to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8% respectively.

Some of the fastest-growing travel routes will include connections within Africa, as well as routes between Africa and Asia-Pacific, reflecting rising demand and improving connectivity in developing regions.

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While demand for air travel remains strong, the pace of growth is gradually slowing. Historically, air travel grew at over 6% annually between 1972 and 1998, but this slowed to 4.5% between 1998 and 2024. The forecast suggests a further moderation to 3.1% through 2050. This slowdown does not indicate weakening demand, but rather reflects a maturing global aviation market where growth continues at a more stable pace.

The report also notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a lasting impact on the aviation industry. Unlike previous crises, global air travel has not fully returned to its earlier growth trend, and this gap is expected to remain even in the long term.

IATA emphasised that future growth will depend heavily on the industry’s ability to reduce its environmental impact. The use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will play a crucial role in achieving net-zero emissions goals. If clean energy solutions are adopted effectively, aviation can continue to grow while limiting environmental damage. However, failure to transition could lead to higher costs and restrictions on growth.

To support the expected rise in passenger numbers, significant investment in airports and airspace infrastructure will be required. Without this, capacity constraints could lead to delays, higher ticket prices, and reduced connectivity.

Willie Walsh, President, IAIA said that the strong demand outlook is positive for global development:

“People want to travel and, under all our scenarios, demand is expected to more than double by mid-century. This will support economic growth, create jobs, and improve global connectivity.”

He also stressed the need for governments to support aviation through better infrastructure, regulatory alignment, and policies that enable a smooth transition to cleaner energy.

IATA’s projections are based on a detailed global model using over 500,000 data points across 41,000 country pairs, taking into account factors such as population growth, economic trends, and travel patterns. The model has shown a high level of accuracy in past forecasts.

In summary, the aviation industry is set for strong long-term growth, with passenger demand expected to rise significantly by 2050. However, this growth will depend on how well the industry manages sustainability challenges and infrastructure development in the coming decades.