Bangladesh polls: Why China, Pakistan are backing Jamaat despite BNP’s surge

With Bangladesh’s national elections just a month away, opinion polls indicate a clear lead for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman. Despite this, both China and Pakistan continue to engage closely with Jamaat-e-Islami, which is expected to finish second and sit in opposition.

Analysts say that Beijing and Islamabad recognise the BNP’s electoral advantage, but still view Jamaat as a strategically important force in Bangladeshi politics. For both countries, Jamaat is seen as a useful counterweight to India’s influence in Bangladesh, regardless of whether it holds power.

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Pakistani officials at various levels have maintained contact with Jamaat leaders, while Indian agencies are closely monitoring developments following a recent meeting between the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen, and Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman.

Observers note that China is well aware Jamaat will remain influential even if it does not win the elections. The party retains significant organisational strength, a wide support base and influence across several institutions.

Security officials believe Jamaat has the capacity to mobilise street protests and create unrest, which could be used to undermine Indian interests in Bangladesh. These concerns come at a time when India has been intensifying its engagement with the BNP leadership.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently attended the funeral of BNP founder Khaleda Zia and delivered a condolence message from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to officials, this attempt to reset ties has unsettled both China and Pakistan.

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“They are likely to engage Jamaat after the elections to fuel protests and ensure continued political volatility,” an official said, adding that instability in Bangladesh poses serious challenges for India, particularly along the border.

A volatile situation would increase pressure on Indian security agencies, which would need to remain on high alert for infiltration attempts and potential terror threats.

An Intelligence Bureau official said Jamaat could be activated whenever India announces new investments or takes steps to improve bilateral ties. The party’s strong street presence, the official added, makes it a useful tool for external actors seeking to prevent post-election stability.

Officials also point out that Jamaat has influence over student unions and is believed to have sympathisers within the army and police. These factors, they say, benefit groups opposed to India’s interests.

With China and Pakistan having made substantial investments in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing is reportedly seeking assurances from Jamaat that any political violence will not affect Chinese assets.

Intelligence agencies anticipate unrest both in the run-up to the elections and in their aftermath. According to officials, both China and Pakistan want Jamaat to ensure that their investments remain untouched amid any turmoil.

Another official claimed Jamaat has provided such assurances, adding that the party is willing to align with any force that works against Indian interests.

By engaging Jamaat, Beijing and Islamabad are also seen as signalling to the BNP that deviation from their preferred policy line could invite instability driven by opposition mobilisation.

Both countries, officials say, are keen to prevent any recalibration of BNP policy towards India. Under Muhammad Yunus, India-Bangladesh relations have reached a historic low, and China and Pakistan would prefer this trajectory to continue even after the elections.

— IANS