Gold, silver prices to rise despite stable inflation? Economic Survey explains why

New Delhi: India’s inflation is expected to remain under control in the next financial year, even though prices of gold and silver are likely to continue rising, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.

The Survey noted that inflationary pressures remain mild due to strong agricultural output, stable global commodity prices, and effective policy measures. It added that the gradual impact of GST rate rationalisation is also helping keep price levels steady.

However, it warned that precious metals such as gold and silver could see sustained price increases as investors continue to treat them as safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. “Unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved,” the Survey said.

Despite this, overall inflation, including both headline and core inflation excluding precious metals, is expected to remain within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 4 per cent, with a margin of plus or minus 2 per cent. The Survey added that inflation in FY27 may be slightly higher than FY26, but is unlikely to pose serious concerns for the economy.

RBI and IMF inflation projections

Both the RBI and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have projected that inflation will stay within manageable levels. The IMF expects India’s inflation to be 2.8 per cent in FY26 and rise to 4 per cent in FY27. Meanwhile, the RBI has forecast inflation of 3.9 per cent in Q1 and 4 per cent in Q2 of FY27.

The Survey also flagged potential risks from currency fluctuations, rising base metal prices, and global geopolitical tensions, stressing the need for continued monitoring and policy readiness.