Will Anvar decide Nilambur result? Counting on Monday

Nilambur: With a day left for the counting of votes, everyone is discussing only one thing. Will the 'Anvar factor' work in the Nilambur by-election? Leaders of various political fronts are debating which front's votes ended up going to P V Anvar. No one doubts that the victory or defeat and the majority will be decided by the votes that Anvar gets.

Anvar's influence in the constituency cannot be dismissed. In Anvar's words, the source of his votes is 'support gained through action'. Anvar claimed the other day that there is someone in every household in the constituency who supports him and they are his silent campaigners.

The UDF believes that most of the votes that P V Anvar gets will belong to the LDF. The latest estimate is that even if Anvar gets 15,000 votes, Aryadan Shoukath will have a majority of at least 5,000 votes. There is also another category of UDF leaders who expect Aryadan Shoukath to have a majority of more than 10,000 votes, regardless of how many votes Anvar gets.

Anvar also wants Aryadan Shoukath to win but with a smaller majority. Anvar said at a press conference on Saturday that if he doesn't win, it would be better if the 'hidden Pinarayi' win.

Anvar also believes that if the UDF wins with a slight majority, the UDF leadership will realise that his opposition has paid off. While he was an MLA from the ruling party, Anvar may have helped many people in the constituency, both personally and indirectly. The UDF camp is also thinking that all of that could translate into votes for Anvar.

Some leaders in the League feel that Swaraj was not a factor in the by-election. They argue that Swaraj was not able to use the influence of the nine years of Left rule for the benefit of the Nilambur region. Anvar points out that Swaraj does not have personal connections in the constituency and is not accepted by many, even within the party.

There is an opinion within the left wing that the dead party element in the constituency is reducing Swaraj's chances. He later regretted the decision to bow to Anvar without growing the party. This election is also an opportunity to see whether the constituency will accept Swaraj's personal influence.

The LDF leadership estimates that it will get great gains in Pothukallu, Karulai, Amarambalam and Nilambur municipality, and there is no anti-incumbency sentiment and that most of the votes Anvar will receive will come from the UDF. They are also expecting neutral votes along with solid votes.

They also expect that the new generation will be with Swaraj. The LDF camp also believes that Anvar will get mostly anti-Shoukath votes.