Wayanad tragedy: IMD bulletins expose HM Amit Shah's claim on advance warnings

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Wednesday countered Union Home Minister Amit Shah's claims about the state being forewarned about the possibility of floods and landslide in the state.

Addressing media persons in Thiruvananthapuram, Chief Minister Vijayan stated that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had issued an orange alert for the district prior to the landslides despite the area receiving over 500 millimeters of rainfall -- significantly exceeding the predicted amount. 

Vijayan noted that a red alert was only issued for the district after the landslides occurred on Tuesday morning. The chief minister, however, emphasized that this was not an opportune time for assigning blame.

An orange alert indicates very heavy rain (6 cm to 20 cm), while a red alert signifies heavy to extremely heavy rain exceeding 20 cm in 24 hours.

Shah's 'Advance Warning' Claim

Addressing Rajya Sabha earlier in the day, Shah stated that the central government had issued multiple advance warnings to the Kerala government regarding potential floods and landslides, starting on July 23. 

Nine National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams were deployed to the state on the same day, Shah claimed, adding that, however, the Kerala government failed to heed these warnings and did not take adequate action despite the arrival of NDRF battalions.

While assuring that the Narendra Modi government stands in solidarity with the Kerala government and people during this tragic time, Shah promised all necessary assistance from the central government. 

Shah remarks came in response to opposition claims that the lack of early warning systems contributed to the loss of lives in the Wayanad landslide tragedy.

The minister emphasized that the central government had provided timely warnings, citing specific dates: July 23, 24, 25, and 26. On July 26, the Kerala government was informed of the possibility of heavy rainfall exceeding 20 centimeters, landslides, and potential loss of life due to mudslides. 

Fact-checking Amit Shah

A closer examination of records shows that on July 23, the Meteorological Center issued an orange alert in the northern region, including Wayanad.

An orange alert means that heavy or very heavy rain is forecast. 12 to 20 cm of rain in isolated places in 24 hours will come under Orange Alert. A red alert is issued for heavy to very-heavy rain. People are to be evacuated if possibility of flood-like conditions emerges. But from July 23 to July 29, IMD gave only orange alert to Kerala. Even on the day of the disaster, the IMD issued an orange alert till August 2.

However, the red alert was announced only in the bulletin that came at 6 am on the day of the disaster. The landslides occurred at Mundakkai and Chooralmala at 2am. 

Government sources also clarified that no special warning was issued for Wayanad apart from that of the IMD. 

With Agency Inputs