Mood of the State survey: What voters think of their MLAs in these 35 important constituencies

As Kerala gears up for its 2026 Assembly elections, a new Mathrubhumi-CORE survey sheds light on the factors likely to influence the state’s political landscape.

The survey, which drew on 28,432 respondents across Kerala, focused on the so-called “MLA Factor” – the way voters rate the performance of their local legislators – a key element expected to shape the election outcome.

On day three of the four-day survey, we assessed the performance of sitting MLAs in 35 constituencies across Kerala.

Using a 100-point scale, the survey categorises MLAs’ ratings from “excellent” (above 90) to “very poor” (below 20). The findings provide an early snapshot of seat projections and the performance scores of incumbents across the constituencies surveyed.

Northern Kerala: Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad and Kozhikode

• Kasaragod: The survey shows a 10.62% lead for the UDF, which is projected to secure 46.77% of the vote compared with the LDF’s 16.58%. The BJP is expected to claim 36.15% in the constituency. MLA NA Nellikkunnu received a performance rating of 69.25 percent.
• Kalliasseri: The LDF leads by 18.81%, with the front expected to win 54.95% of the vote against the UDF’s 36.14%. The BJP is projected to secure 8.91%. MLA M Vijin earned a performance score of 77.32 percent.
• Dharmadam: The survey indicates a 40.37% advantage for the LDF, projected to gather 67.7% of the vote compared with 27.33% for the UDF. The BJP is set to secure 4.97%. MLA Pinarayi Vijayan recorded a performance score of 86.45 percent.
• Thalassery: The LDF holds a 28.52% lead, with a projected vote share of 59.22% against the UDF’s 30.7%. The BJP is expected to obtain 10.08%. MLA AN Shamseer received a performance rating of 74.7 percent.
• Nadapuram: The constituency is a close contest, with the UDF leading by 3.44% and securing 48.32% of the vote against the LDF’s 44.88%. The BJP is projected at 7.8%. MLA EK Vijayan recorded a performance score of 64 percent.
• Perambra: The LDF leads by 7.42%, with the front projected to secure 48.59% of the vote compared with 41.17% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to claim 10.24%. MLA TP Ramakrishnan earned a performance rating of 76.44 percent.
• Kozhikode North: The survey shows a 6.86% advantage for the LDF, projected to win 43.1% of the vote against the UDF’s 36.24%. The BJP is set to secure 20.66%. MLA Thottathil Raveendran received a performance score of 64.95 percent.
• Kunnamangalam: The constituency is a close race, with the UDF leading by 2.94% and projected to secure 48.77% of the vote against 45.83% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to take 4.43%. MLA PTA Rahim recorded a performance rating of 64.62 percent.

Malappuram and Palakkad Region

• Wandoor (SC): The survey shows a 18.78% lead for the UDF, which is projected to secure 56.4% of the vote against 37.62% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to take 5.98%. MLA AP Anil Kumar recorded a performance rating of 56.4 percent.
• Perinthalmanna: The UDF leads by 9.94%, with a projected vote share of 52.42% compared with 42.48% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to hold 5.1%. MLA Najeeb Kanthapuram earned a performance score of 77.2 percent.
• Vengara: The survey indicates a 24% lead for the UDF, projected to secure 59.2% of the vote against 35.20% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to claim 5.6%. MLA PK Kunhalikutty recorded a performance rating of 67.81 percent.
• Kottakkal: The UDF leads by 30%, with a projected vote share of 60.85% against 30.85% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to hold 8.30%. MLA Abid Hussain Thangal earned a performance score of 71.4 percent.
• Tirur: The survey shows a 15.32% lead for the UDF, which is projected to win 55.13% of the vote compared with 39.81% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to secure 5.06%. MLA Kurukkoli Moideen recorded a performance score of 64.54 percent.
• Mannarkkad: The UDF holds a 10.04% advantage, projected to take 51.27% of the vote against 41.23% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to secure 7.5%. MLA N Samsudheen recorded a performance rating of 72.6 percent.
• Tarur: The LDF leads by 15%, with a projected vote share of 51.01% against 36.01% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to hold 12.98%. MLA PP Sumod earned a performance score of 67.63 percent.

Thrissur and Central Kerala

• Ollur: The survey shows an 18.3% lead for the LDF, projected to secure 52.18% of the vote against 33.88% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to hold 13.94%. MLA K Rajan recorded a performance score of 79.85 percent.
• Irinjalakuda: The LDF leads by 5.95%, with a projected vote share of 44.18% compared with 38.23% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to secure 17.59%. MLA R Bindu earned a performance score of 67.74 percent.
• Aluva: The UDF holds a 12.7% advantage, projected to take 52.21% of the vote against 39.51% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to claim 8.28%. MLA Anwar Sadath recorded a performance rating of 71.46 percent.
• Thrikkakara: The survey shows a 13.3% lead for the UDF, projected to secure 51.95% of the vote against 38.65% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to hold 9.40%. MLA Uma Thomas recorded a performance score of 63.84 percent.
• Thripunithura: The constituency is a close contest, with the LDF leading by 1.05% and projected to take 41.17% of the vote against 40.12% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to hold 18.71%. MLA K Babu earned a performance score of 50.69 percent.
• Udumbanchola: The LDF leads by 21.01%, with a projected vote share of 57.50% against 36.49% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to secure 6.01%. MLA MM Mani recorded a performance rating of 78.42 percent.

Kottayam and Alappuzha

• Puthuppally: The survey shows a 25.7% lead for the UDF, projected to secure 58.1% of the vote against 32.4% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to hold 9.5%. MLA Chandy Oommen recorded a performance score of 78.75 percent.
• Kaduthuruthy: The UDF leads by 10.33%, with a projected vote share of 48.74% compared with 38.41% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to secure 12.85%. MLA Mons Joseph earned a performance score of 59.34 percent.
• Ambalapuzha: The survey indicates a 3.18% lead for the UDF, projected to take 43.68% of the vote against 40.50% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to hold 15.91%. MLA H Salam recorded a performance rating of 58.55 percent.
• Kuttanad: The UDF leads by 5.48%, with a projected vote share of 46.77% against 41.29% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to secure 11.94%. MLA Thomas K Thomas earned a performance score of 43.18 percent.

Pathanamthitta and Kollam

• Aranmula: The survey indicates a close contest, with the LDF leading by 2.79% and projected to secure 42.21% of the vote against 39.42% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to claim 18.37%. MLA Veena George recorded a performance score of 57.29 percent.
• Chavara: The UDF holds a 3.99% lead, with a projected vote share of 46.77% against 42.78% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to secure 10%. MLA Sujith Vijayanpillai earned a performance score of 65.52 percent.
• Chadayamangalam: The LDF leads by 5.9%, projected to win 45.61% of the vote against 39.71% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to take 14.68%. MLA J Chinchu Rani recorded a performance score of 50.04 percent.
• Kollam: The UDF holds a 4.48% advantage, projected to secure 44.78% of the vote against 40.3% for the LDF. The BJP is expected to claim 14.92%. MLA Mukesh recorded a performance score of 48.1 percent.
• Punalur: The LDF leads by 20.87%, with a projected vote share of 55.71% against 34.84% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to hold 9.45%. MLA PS Supal earned a performance score of 69.17 percent.
• Konni: The survey shows a 4.6% lead for the LDF, projected to take 45.05% of the vote against 40.45% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to secure 14.45%. MLA KU Jenish Kumar recorded a performance score of 70.25 percent.

Thiruvananthapuram Region

• Nedumangad: The survey shows a 6.86% lead for the LDF, projected to secure 45.59% of the vote against 38.73% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to hold 15.69%. MLA GR Anil recorded a performance score of 58.71 percent.
• Attingal: The LDF leads by 22.35%, with a projected vote share of 51.72% against 18.91% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to claim 29.37%. MLA OS Ambika earned a performance score of 65.17 percent.
• Kattakada: The constituency is a close contest, with the LDF leading by 1.97% and projected to secure 35.96% of the vote against 33.99% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to take 30.05%. MLA IB Satheesh recorded a performance score of 59.8 percent.
• Parassala: The LDF holds a 28.08% lead, projected to secure 57.65% of the vote against 29.57% for the UDF. The BJP is expected to claim 12.78%. MLA CK Hareendran earned a performance score of 81.82 percent.

(On Saturday, we also looked into 35 other constituencies… Read it here)