Mood of the State survey: How voters in these 35 critical seats rated their MLAs

As Kerala prepares for the 2026 Assembly elections, Mathrubhumi-CORE Mood of the State survey offers deep insight into the dynamics that could shape the political landscape of the state in the weeks to come.

The survey, which analyzed 28432 samples across the state, examined the 'MLA Factor' -- how individual voters rate their local representative. This is set to be among the major determinants in the final outcome. On day one of the four-day extensive survey coverage, we examine the performance of sitting legislators in 35 key constituencies.

According to the survey's 100-point performance scale, the ratings for MLAs range from "excellent" (above 90) to "very poor" (below 20). Below are the seat projections and the corresponding performance marks for the sitting MLAs across the 35 requested constituencies:

Northern Kerala: North Malabar and Wayanad

In Manjeshwar, a "Tight Fight" is projected with the UDF holding a 1.5% lead over the BJP; sitting MLA AKM Ashraf (UDF) received 59.5 marks.

In Taliparamba, the LDF maintains a strong 15.35% lead, with MLA MV Govindan (LDF) scoring 71.93 marks.

In Wayanad's Sulthan Bathery (ST), the UDF leads by 10.84%, while MLA IC Balakrishnan (UDF) earned 55.61 marks.

In Elathur, the LDF leads by 15.83% with MLA AK Saseendran (LDF) scoring 61.43 marks, and in Thiruvambady, the LDF holds a 4.18% lead as MLA Linto Joseph (LDF) secured a high 76.94 marks.

The Malappuram and Palakkad Belt

The UDF shows regional dominance in Malappuram. In Nilambur, the UDF leads by 17.76%, with MLA Aryadan Shoukath (UDF) receiving 69.69 marks.

Tirurangadi projects an 8.77% UDF lead for MLA KPA Majeed (53.08 marks), while Thavanur shows a 5.64% UDF lead over MLA KT Jaleel (60.85 marks).

In Palakkad, Chittur favours the LDF by 5.49% with MLA K Krishnankutty (71.89 marks), and Ottapalam projects a 10.68% LDF lead for MLA K Premkumar (71.41 marks).

In Malampuzha, the LDF leads by 20.01% with MLA A. Prabhakaran scoring 59.8 marks.  

Central Kerala: Thrissur to Idukki

In Thrissur, a three-way split sees the UDF leading with 38.91%; however, sitting MLA P Balachandran (LDF) received one of the lower ratings in the state at 46.17 marks.

Kunnamkulam favours the LDF by 10.96% with MLA AC Moideen scoring 69.45 marks, while Kaipamangalam also leans LDF by 10.04% for MLA ET Taison (64.63 marks). In Chalakkudy, the UDF leads by 8.3% with MLA TJ Saneesh Kumar Joseph scoring 64.26 marks.

In the High Ranges, Idukki is a 'Tight Fight' with the LDF leading by 2.43%, though MLA Roshy Augustine (LDF) scored 53.65 marks. Peerumade leans UDF by 6.27% with MLA Vazhoor Soman (LDF) at 50.39 marks, while Thodupuzha projects a strong 17.15% UDF lead for veteran MLA PJ Joseph (70.93 marks).

Kottayam and Ernakulam Highlights

Vaikom projects an 8.2% LDF lead for MLA CK Asha (59.3 marks), and Kanjirappally leans LDF by 5.31% for MLA N Jayaraj (62.12 marks). In Ernakulam, Piravom shows a 14.94% UDF lead for MLA Anoop Jacob (70.25 marks), and Perumbavoor leans UDF by 7.09% for MLA Eldhose Kunnappilly (62.41 marks).

Kunnathunad projects a 7.5% UDF lead over MLA PV Sreenijin (LDF), who scored 52.7 marks, and Vypin leans LDF by 5.07% for MLA KN Unnikrishnan (59.99 marks).

Southern Strongholds and 'Tight Fights'

Mavelikara emerges as a major LDF stronghold with a 29.78% lead, bolstered by MS Arun Kumar, who is the state's second-highest rated MLA with 82.69 marks.

In Chengannur, the LDF leads by 15.2% with MLA Saji Cheriyan scoring 70.5 marks. 

Eravipuram leans LDF by 7.46% for MLA M Noushad (72.67 marks), while Pathanapuram shows a 9.36% LDF lead for MLA KB Ganesh Kumar (68.51 marks).

Conversely, Ranni and Kunnathur are projected for the UDF with leads of 4.21% and 8.39% respectively; MLAs Pramod Narayan (LDF) and Kovoor Kunjumon (LDF) scored 60.39 and 50.84 marks.

In Adoor, the UDF leads by 6.63% over MLA Chittayam Gopakumar (50.21 marks).

The Capital Region

In Thiruvananthapuram, the UDF holds a 7.43% lead over MLA Antony Raju (LDF), who scored 56.38 marks. Vamanapuram leans LDF by 15.7% for MLA DK Murali (67.48 marks), while Aruvikkara projects a 3.99% UDF lead for MLA G Stephen (LDF), who scored 54.72 marks. Neyyattinkara remains a 'tight fight' with the LDF leading by just 1.93%, as MLA K Ansalan (LDF) earned 53.36 marks.

This data arrives at a critical juncture as the Election Commission is expected to announce the official schedule for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections within the next few days. The survey in these 35 seats indicates how the personal popularity of the MLA -- often rated higher than the government itself -- will be the primary factor in whether these constituencies remain with the incumbent or flip to the opposition.