Mood of the State survey: How NDA could swing Kerala’s tightest constituencies
Thiruvananthapuram: As Kerala inches closer towards the 2026 Assembly elections, the Mathrubhumi-CORE 'Mood of the State' survey reveals that while the primary contest remains between the LDF and UDF, the BJP-led NDA has emerged as a critical "swing factor" that could dictate the final outcome.
The survey projects a statewide vote share of 14.17% for the NDA. Although this trails the LDF (43.55%) and the UDF (42.28%), analysts point out that this 11% represents a "critical mass" of voters capable of shifting the balance in dozens of constituencies.
In a state where the lead margin in many seats is projected to be less than 3%, the NDA's ability to pull votes from either major bloc makes them the ultimate spoiler.
Battle for 'tight fight' seats
The NDA's influence is most visible in constituencies identified as "tight fights'. In these high-stakes segments, the BJP is not just a third-party presence but a direct top-two contender:
- Manjeshwar: A razor-thin 1.5% margin separates the UDF (40.5%) and the BJP (39%).
- Nemom: The LDF (41.02%) holds a precarious 1.21% lead over the BJP (39.81%).
The survey methodology specifically accounts for this 'BJP factor', incorporating average BJP vote values as a weightage to determine the win-loss probability for the LDF and UDF across all 140 seats.
Regional Strength and Controversy
The NDA continues to show its strongest performance in the southern region, where its projected vote share climbs to 18.01%, significantly higher than its 10.9% share in the North and 13.77% in Central Kerala.
Furthermore, the survey suggests that social and religious controversies, specifically the Sabarimala issue, continue to create a favourable political climate for the NDA.
Respondents indicated that such controversies do not negatively impact the NDA; rather, they serve as a catalyst to consolidate their base and influence the broader electoral mood.
The Expansion Challenge
Despite acting as a significant swing element, the NDA faces a persistent challenge in expanding its reach. The survey notes that the alliance has struggled to break out of its existing strongholds into new territories.
As a result, while the NDA will likely decide the winner in many LDF-UDF battles, it is currently projected to win only between 0 and 2 seats in the 2026 Assembly.
With the Election Commission expected to announce the poll schedule in the coming days, all eyes are on how the "NDA factor" will ultimately reshape the political map of Kerala.