Kerala saw rain holidays, floods and landslides, yet monsoon deficit points towards a 17-year low

Kerala’s harvest festival Onam is over, but the rain has refused to take a break, leaving many wondering when the skies will finally clear.

The bigger picture, however, is quite different. Kerala has received 20% less rainfall than normal so far during the southwest monsoon, making this one of the state’s driest monsoon seasons since 2009.

The deficit may come as a surprise, particularly after the intense spells of rain witnessed across several parts of the state. The monsoon has brought school holidays, flooding and landslides this year. Yet, when rainfall is measured across the state as a whole, Kerala remains below its normal monsoon total.

The focus has now shifted to September, the final month of the southwest monsoon.

The rainfall received during the month could significantly alter Kerala’s overall monsoon figures. If the deficit narrows, the season could end on a better note. A poor September, however, would leave the state with a larger shortfall.

The rainfall situation is not limited to Kerala. India has recorded a 13% deficit so far this monsoon.

For Kerala, a continued shortfall could put additional pressure on agriculture and raise concerns over water availability in the months ahead, particularly if the deficit is not recovered before the southwest monsoon withdraws.

June dealt the biggest blow to Kerala’s rainfall

June was the biggest setback for Kerala’s monsoon rainfall figures.

The state recorded a 36% rainfall deficit during the month, marking a weak beginning to the southwest monsoon season.

July offered some relief. Kerala received 1% more rainfall than normal that month, briefly bringing the rainfall figures closer to the seasonal average.

That improvement did not continue into August. As of August 26, Kerala had recorded a 14% rainfall deficit for the month.

The contrasting figures also explain why spells of very heavy rain can occur even when the state’s overall seasonal rainfall remains below normal.

El Niño cited as a factor behind lower rainfall

The El Niño weather phenomenon has been cited as a major reason for the lower rainfall this year.

El Niño refers to unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can influence global weather patterns and affect the southwest monsoon over India.

Kerala’s current rainfall deficit also stands out when compared with several previous years that recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall.

The state recorded a 20.9% deficit in 2002 and an 18.3% deficit in 2009. The deficit stood at 10.15% in 2014 and 12.7% in 2015.

Several states are also facing rainfall deficits

Kerala is not the only state experiencing below-normal rainfall this monsoon.

India’s overall rainfall remains in deficit, although there are significant regional variations. Central India has received comparatively better rainfall, despite recording a 1.8% deficit.

Among individual states, Bihar has recorded the highest rainfall deficit at 42%.

The deficit stands at 39% in Andhra Pradesh, 34% in Punjab, 22% in Karnataka and 21% in Rajasthan.

What happens next for Kerala?

For Kerala, the immediate focus is on September rainfall.

The southwest monsoon has brought intense spells of rain to different parts of the state, even as the season’s overall rainfall remains 20% below normal. The rainfall received over the coming weeks will therefore be important in determining where Kerala’s monsoon figures finally settle.