Kerala Pre Poll survey: Who’s ahead in 35 key constituencies

With Kerala set to go to the State Assembly polls on April 9, a pre-poll survey conducted by Citizens Opinion Research and Evaluation (CORE) for Mathrubhumi has offered a first look at the state’s political climate.

The Kerala Pre Poll survey, which engaged 31,706 respondents across all 140 constituencies between March 23 and 30, was designed to gauge public sentiment and evaluate the performance of various political alliances. Respondents were asked a decisive question: which alliance’s candidate do you want to win in this constituency?

To gauge the leads, researchers categorised margins into three brackets. A margin between 0 and 2.5% signifies a “Tight Fight”, a lead of 2.51% to 4% indicates a “Slight Advantage”, and any lead above 4% is considered a “Strong possibility” to retain or regain the seat.

Here is the breakdown for 35 key seats, with the respective candidates, their party affiliations, the percentages they secured, and the margin of lead:

1. Kasaragod: A strong possibility for the UDF. Kallatra Mahin Haji (IUML) leads with 39.86%, followed by the LDF’s Shanavas Padhoor (LDF-IND) at 24.39% and the NDA’s Ashwini ML (BJP) at 3.575%. Lead: 4.11%.
2. Kalliasseri: The LDF is in a dominant position. M Vijin (CPM) commands 59.01%, with the UDF’s Rajeevan Kappacheri (INC) at 31.24% and the NDA’s AV Sanil Kumar (BJP) at 9.75%. Lead: 27.77%.
3. Sultan Bathery (ST): A strong possibility for the UDF. IC Balakrishnan (INC) leads with 47.99%, ahead of the LDF’s MS Viswanathan (CPM) at 41.98% and the NDA’s Kavitha AS (BJP) at 10.03%. Lead: 6.01%.
4. Elathur: The LDF holds a strong possibility. AK Saseendran (NCP) has 46.64%, while the UDF’s Vidya Balakrishnan (INC) stands at 30.41% and the NDA’s T Devadas (BJP) is at 22.95%. Lead: 16.23%.
5. Kalpetta: Frontrunner T Siddique (INC) of the UDF holds 48.86%, followed by PK Anil Kumar (RJD) of the LDF at 42.31% and the NDA’s Prasanth Malavayal (BJP) at 8.83%. Lead: 6.55%.
6. Nilambur: A strong possibility for the UDF. Aryadan Shoukath (INC) leads with 49.98%, ahead of the LDF’s U Sharaf Ali (CPM-IND.) at 43.81% and the NDA’s Gireesh Mekkad (BDJS) at 6.21%. Lead: 6.17%.
7. Tirurangadi: The UDF is in a strong position. PMA Sameer (IUML) has 51.24%, while the LDF’s Ajit Kolady (CPI) stands at 42.60% and the NDA’s Riju C Raghav (BJP) is at 6.16%. Lead: 8.64%.
8. Thavanur: A “Slight Advantage” for the UDF. VS Joy (INC) leads with 47.74%, ahead of the LDF’s Dr KT Jaleel (CPM-IND) at 45.15% and the NDA’s Ravi Thelath (BJP) at 7.11%. Lead: 2.59%.
9. Chittur: Sumesh Achuthan (INC) of the UDF commands 46.35%, followed by Murukadas (ISJD) of the LDF at 41.69% and the NDA’s Pranesh Rajendran (BJP) at 11.96%. Lead: 4.66%.
10. Ottapalam: The LDF holds a strong possibility. Adv. K Premkumar (CPM) leads with 46.23%, ahead of the UDF’s PK Sasi (INC) at 32.21% and the NDA’s Major Ravi (BJP) at 21.56%. Lead: 14.02%.
11. Kunnamkulam: A strong lead for the LDF. AC Moideen (CPM) has 48.81%, while the UDF’s Ajay Mohan (INC) stands at 39.91% and the NDA’s Rijil KR (BDJS) is at 11.28%. Lead: 8.9%.
12. Thrissur: A “Slight Advantage” for the UDF in a tight multi-cornered fight. Rajan J Pallan (INC) holds 36.03%, with the NDA’s Padmaja Venugopal (BJP) at 33.3% and the LDF’s Alankode Leelakrishnan (CPI) at 30.67%. Lead: 2.73%.
13. Kaipamangalam: The LDF is firmly in the lead. KK Valsaraj (CPI) has 50.38%, followed by the UDF’s TM Nazar (INC) at 37.79% and the NDA’s Athulya Ghosh (BDJS) at 11.83%. Lead: 12.59%.
14. Perumbavoor: Manoj Moothedan (INC) of the UDF leads with 46.16%, followed by the LDF’s Basil Paul (KC-M) at 39.98% and the NDA’s Jibi Varghese Pathikkal (NDA) at 13.86%. Lead: 6.18%.
15. Kunnathunad: The UDF holds a strong lead. VP Sajeendran (INC) has 40.60%, ahead of the LDF’s PV Sreenijin (CPM) at 35.52% and the NDA’s Babu Divakaran (Twenty20) at 23.88%. Lead: 5.08%.
16. Piravom: A substantial strong possibility for the UDF. Anoop Jacob (KC-J) commands 51.76%, with the LDF’s Sabu Jacob (KC-M) at 39.58% and the NDA’s Jibi Abraham (Twenty20) at 8.66%. Lead: 12.18%.
17. Ambalapuzha: G Sudhakaran (UDF-IND) leads with 47.7%, followed by the LDF’s H Salam (CPM) at 41.96% and the NDA’s Arun Anirudhan (BJP) at 10.34%. Lead: 5.74%.
18. Peerumade: A “Slight Advantage” for the UDF. Adv. Syriac Thomas (INC) has 47.82%, with the LDF’s K Salim Kumar (CPI) at 43.86% and the NDA’s V Ratheesh (BJP) at 8.32%. Lead: 3.96%.
19. Vaikom: The LDF holds a strong lead. P Pradeep (CPI) leads with 49.41%, ahead of the UDF’s K Binimon (INC) at 38.22% and the NDA’s K Ajith (BJP) at 12.37%. Lead: 11.19%.
20. Chengannur: A strong possibility for the LDF. Saji Cherian (CPM) commands 44.52%, with the UDF’s Aby Kuriakose (INC) at 30.96% and the NDA’s MV Gopakumar (BJP) at 24.52%. Lead: 13.56%.
21. Kanjirappally: The LDF is ahead with a strong possibility. N Jayaraj (KC-M) holds 39.68%, followed by the UDF’s Prof. Rony K Baby (INC) at 33.68% and the NDA’s George Kurien (BJP) at 26.64%. Lead: 6.0%.
22. Mavelikara: A dominant strong lead for the LDF. MS Arunkumar (CPM) has 53.61%, while the UDF’s Muthara Raj (INC) stands at 29.08% and the NDA’s Ajimon (BJP) is at 17.31%. Lead: 24.53%.
23. Ranni: Pramod Narayan (KC-M) of the LDF leads with 45.56%, ahead of the UDF’s Pazhakulam Madhu (INC) at 40.22% and the NDA’s Thomas K Samuel (Twenty20) at 14.22%. Lead: 5.34%.
24. Vypen: The LDF holds a strong possibility. Adv. MB Shyni (CPM) has 46.64%, with the UDF’s Tony Chammany (INC) at 40.99% and the NDA’s Anitha Thomas (Twenty20) at 12.37%. Lead: 5.65%.
25. Pathanapuram: A “Slight Advantage” for the LDF. KB Ganesh Kumar (KC-B) stands at 47.57%, while the UDF’s Jyothikumar Chamakkala (INC) has 43.57% and the NDA’s Anil Kumar S (Twenty20) has 8.86%. Lead: 4%.
26. Kunnathur: The UDF holds a strong lead. Ullas Kovoor (RSP) leads with 48.82%, ahead of the LDF’s Kovoor Kunjumon (RSP-L) at 41.34% and the NDA’s Raji Prasad (BJP) at 9.84%. Lead: 7.48%.
27. Eravipuram: A strong possibility for the LDF. M Naushad (CPI) has 50.9%, while the UDF’s Adv. Vishnu Mohan (RSP) stands at 38.84% and the NDA’s Saji D Anand (BDJS) is at 10.26%. Lead: 12.06%.
28. Thiruvananthapuram: The UDF holds a strong lead in the capital. CP John (CMP) has 38.47%, followed by the LDF’s Sudheer Karamana (LDF-IND) at 33.9% and the NDA’s S Suresh (BJP) at 27.63%. Lead: 4.57%.
29. Aruvikkara: A “Slight Advantage” for the UDF. VS Sivakumar (INC) leads with 41%, ahead of the LDF’s G Stephen (CPM) at 38.12% and the NDA’s Vivek Gopan (BJP) at 20.88%. Lead: 2.88%.
30. Chalakkudy: The UDF holds a strong possibility. Saneesh Kumar Joseph (INC) holds 45.37%, with the LDF’s Adv. Biju Chirayath (KCM) at 38.17% and the NDA’s Charlie Paul (Twenty20) at 26.46%. Lead: 7.2%.
31. Vamanapuram: Adv. DK Murali (CPM) of the LDF holds 49.5%, followed by the UDF’s Sudheer Sha Palode (INC) at 42.59% and the NDA’s Adv. Venu Karanavar (BDJS) at 7.91%. Lead: 6.91%.
32. Malampuzha: The LDF is firmly in the lead. A Prabhakaran (CPM) commands 46.51%, with the NDA’s C Krishnakumar (BJP) at 33.13% and the UDF’s A Suresh (INC) at 20.36%. Lead: 13.38%.
33. Kazhakkoottam: A “Tight Fight” situation. Kadakampally Surendran (CPM) of the LDF leads with 40.86%, just ahead of the NDA’s V Muraleedharan (BJP) at 38.54% and the UDF’s Sarathchandra Prasad (INC) at 20.6%. Lead: 2.32%.
34. Devikulam: The LDF holds a strong lead. Adv. A Raja (CPM) leads with 45.58%, ahead of the UDF’s F Raja (INC) at 40.78% and the NDA’s S Rajendran (BJP) at 13.64%. Lead: 4.8%.
35. Adoor: A “Slight Advantage” for the UDF. Adv. Shanthakumar (INC) has 43.77%, with the LDF’s Priji Kannan (CPI) at 40.94% and the NDA’s Pandalam Prathapan (BJP) at 15.29%. Lead: 2.83%.

In the coming days, the breakdown for the remaining 105 seats of the 140-member Assembly will be released. Stay tuned for the complete picture.