Kerala Pre Poll survey: LDF holds slight edge over UDF in tight contest
With Kerala heading to Assembly polls on April 9, a pre-poll survey by Citizens Opinion Research and Evaluation (CORE) for Mathrubhumi indicates a neck-and-neck contest, with the Left Democratic Front (LDF) holding a slender edge over the United Democratic Front (UDF). While the LDF is projected to emerge with the most seats, a large number of “tight fight” constituencies suggest that the final outcome remains wide open.
The survey predicts the LDF will finish as the largest bloc, but the UDF is within striking distance. The NDA (BJP) is projected to potentially open its account but remains a distant third.
- LDF: 66 – 78 Seats
- UDF: 62 – 72 Seats
- NDA (BJP): 0 – 2 Seats
Also read | Kerala Pre Poll survey: Who has the edge in 35 key assembly seats
The report identifies 12 “Tight Fight” seats where the margin of lead is extremely thin, which could ultimately decide who forms the government.
Regional Breakdown
The political landscape varies significantly across the three major regions of Kerala:
1. Northern Kerala (60 Seats)
A dead heat is expected in the north. Both the LDF and UDF are projected to win between 28 and 32 seats each. Four seats in this region are currently classified as “Tight Fights”.
2. Central Kerala (41 Seats)
The UDF holds the upper hand here, with a projected range of 21–23 seats, while the LDF is expected to secure 18–20 seats. Two seats are currently too close to call.
Also read | Kerala Pre Poll survey: Peravoor set for tight fight; Sunny Joseph likely to edge KK Shailaja
3. Southern Kerala (39 Seats)
The LDF shows its strongest relative performance in the south, projected to take 20–26 seats compared to the UDF’s 13–17 seats. Notably, this is the only region where the NDA is projected to potentially secure up to 2 seats. There are 6 “Tight Fight” constituencies in this region.
District-wise Performance
The LDF dominates in strongholds like Kannur (8 seats) and Thrissur (10 seats). Meanwhile, the UDF maintains its traditional grip on Malappuram (15 seats) and Ernakulam (11 seats).
| District | LDF | UDF | Tight Fight |
| Kasaragod | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Kannur | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| Wayanad | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kozhikode | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| Malappuram | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Palakkad | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| Thrissur | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Ernakulam | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Idukki | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kottayam | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Alappuzha | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Pathanamthitta | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Kollam | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Thiruvananthapuram | 6 | 3 | 5 |
The “Tight Fight” Battlegrounds
The survey highlights 12 constituencies where the race is coming down to the wire.
Key Tight Fight Projections:
- Leading for LDF: Changanassery, Kazhakkootam, Vattiyoorkavu, Nemom, and Kattakkada.
- Leading for UDF: Kannur, Peravoor, Vadakara, Thrithala, Poonjar, Aranmula, and Neyyattinkara.
- BJP Impact: The BJP is currently in the 2nd position in both Kazhakkootam and Nemom, trailing the LDF by roughly 2.3% in each.
With 66 seats currently leaning LDF and 62 seats leaning UDF, the 12 battleground seats will be the ultimate factor in determining the next administration.