‘Worry over Abdurahiman, confidence in Kollam, Ambalapuzha a cliffhanger’: CPM’s poll assessment

Following the Kerala Assembly elections, early assessments emerging from CPM’s constituency and district committees present a mixed picture, blending anxiety with optimism within Left circles. Concerns over weakening prospects in some sitting seats in Thiruvananthapuram, and the possibility of prominent leaders, including Minister V. Abdurahiman in Malappuram, facing defeat, have put the party on the defensive. At the same time, internal estimates suggesting gains such as reclaiming the Tripunithura seat in Ernakulam and winning up to nine seats in Kollam offer a measure of hope.

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In constituencies like Ambalapuzha, the outcome is believed to hinge on where BJP votes have gone. While enthusiasm for retaining power remains, the intensity of contests and unexpected setbacks across regions has left the CPM uneasy ahead of counting.

Nervous in the capital: Tight contests in four seats

In Thiruvananthapuram district, CPM’s internal assessments point to intense contests in four constituencies—Neyyattinkara, Aruvikkara, Kattakkada and Nemom. The party remains cautiously anxious about its prospects here, with little expectation of large victory margins even if it manages to win.

In 2021, the LDF had won 13 out of 14 seats in the district, with Kovalam being the lone seat won by the UDF. However, current booth-level data suggests a dip in winnability in some sitting seats.

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In Thiruvananthapuram and Kovalam, where LDF fielded independent candidates, the party now sees limited chances of victory. Voting patterns and other indicators suggest these seats may slip away. On the brighter side, the party is confident about winning Attingal, Varkala and Parassala. In Vattiyoorkavu, despite a tough contest faced by VK Prasanth, the party believes it can still pull through.

Ambalapuzha remains a cliffhanger

In the Alappuzha district, CPM remains uncertain about its prospects in Ambalapuzha. Preliminary assessments submitted by the constituency committee outline two possibilities: either a narrow victory with less than 4,000 votes or a defeat by up to 2,000 votes. The ambiguity stems largely from uncertainty over the direction of BJP votes.

The party fears a potential setback in the constituency. Overall, CPM expects to win seven out of nine seats in the district. However, Kuttanad, contested by ally NCP, may be lost, and Haripad is expected to remain with the UDF.

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In Aroor, Alappuzha and Kayamkulam, only slender victory margins are expected. Meanwhile, strong performances are anticipated in Chengannur, where a margin exceeding 20,000 votes is projected, and in Cherthala and Mavelikkara, where margins of around 18,000 votes are expected.

In 2021, the UDF won only one seat in Alappuzha —Ramesh Chennithala’s Haripad— while the LDF swept the remaining eight.

Malappuram worries: Minister Abdurahiman may lose Tirur

CPM’s internal review in Malappuram offers little comfort. The party believes Minister V Abdurahiman may lose in the Tirur seat despite a strong contest, with UDF candidate Kurukkoli Moideen likely to win by a narrow margin. Tanur is also expected to slip from the party’s hands.

In 2021, the LDF managed to win only four seats in Malappuram, with the remaining 12 going to the UDF. This time, the party fears its presence may shrink further to just two seats.

There is some hope in retaining Thavanur and Ponnani, though with reduced margins. In Thavanur, a margin of 3,000–5,000 votes is expected, while in Ponnani, the margin may drop to between 5,000 and 7,000. In Vengara, the party believes it has put up a strong fight and may significantly reduce KM Shaji’s majority.

Will ‘Left fortress’ fall? Mixed signals from Idukki

In Idukki, CPM’s preliminary assessment reflects both confidence and concern. The party fears losing Peerumedu, where a sympathy wave in favour of UDF candidate Syriac Thomas may hurt CPI candidate K. Salim Kumar.

However, the party is confident of victories in Udumbanchola and Idukki. In Udumbanchola, CPM expects KK Jayachandran to win with a large margin. In Idukki, where MM Mani won by 38,000 votes last time, the LDF expects to retain the seat comfortably.

Devikulam remains unpredictable, with intense competition reported. Despite uncertainty, the party has not ruled out victory. Having won four out of five seats (except Thodupuzha) in 2021, the LDF now finds itself in a more cautious position.

Will Ernakulam turn red? CPM eyes six seats, pins hope on Tripunithura

In Ernakulam, CPM believes it can win up to six seats, one more than the five it secured in 2021. Out of 14 constituencies, the party is confident about six.

It expects to retain Kochi, Vypin, Kunnathunad, Kalamassery and Kothamangalam. Additionally, it hopes to reclaim Tripunithura, which it previously held.

Despite tough contests in Kothamangalam and Kunnathunad, the party is optimistic about victory. It also expects improved vote share in Aluva and Thrikkakara, indicating broader gains even if seats are not won.

Will Kollam stay red? CPM predicts up to 9 seats amid tight contests

In Kollam, CPM estimates it could win between six and nine seats. While five constituencies are witnessing intense contests, the party remains hopeful that anti-incumbency will not significantly impact results.

In 2021, the LDF won 9 out of 11 seats, with only Kundara and Karunagappally going to the UDF. This time, key battlegrounds include Kollam, Chavara, Kunnathur, Kundara and Pathanapuram.

In Pathanapuram, Minister KB Ganesh Kumar faces a tough fight. In Kunnathur, veteran MLA Kovoor Kunjumon is under pressure, while in Kundara, LDF’s SN Sajikumar faces strong competition from UDF’s PC Vishnunath.

The party is hopeful of reclaiming Karunagappally and Kundara. If anti-incumbency does not translate into votes, CPM believes it can secure strong victories even in tightly contested seats.

Cracks in Kasaragod fortresses?

In Kasaragod, CPM’s internal assessment indicates tough contests in its sitting seats. In Trikaripur, minority consolidation is expected to give the party a lead of around 4,900 votes. However, in Udma, reports suggest the party is trailing by about 1,500 votes, raising concerns.

In 2021, the LDF won three out of five seats in the district, with Manjeshwar and Kasaragod going to the UDF. This time, the party expects to retain its influence, projecting over 40,000 votes for its candidate, Shanavas Padhoor, in Kasaragod and minimal vote leakage in Manjeshwar.