Mood of the State survey: How voters assess their MLAs in these 35 key seats

As Kerala prepares for the 2026 Assembly elections, Mathrubhumi-CORE Mood of the State survey offers deep insight into the dynamics that could shape the political landscape of the state in the weeks to come.

The survey, which analysed 28432 samples across the state, examined the 'MLA Factor' – how individual voters rate their local representative. This is set to be among the major determinants in the final outcome. On day one of the four-day extensive survey coverage, we examine the performance of sitting legislators in 35 key constituencies in the four districts of North Kerala.

According to the survey's 100-point performance scale, the ratings for MLAs range from "excellent" (above 90) to "very poor" (below 20). Below are the seat projections and the corresponding performance marks for the sitting MLAs across the 35 requested constituencies:

Northern Kerala: Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad and Kozhikode

• Udma: The survey confirms a 6.97% LDF lead, with the front securing 48.26% of the vote share against the UDF’s 41.29%. The BJP is projected to hold a 10.45% share in the constituency. MLA C.H. Kunhambu recorded a performance score of 72.4 per cent.
• Trikaripur: The LDF holds a 10.47% advantage, polling 46.57% compared to the UDF’s 36.1%. The BJP vote share is projected at 17.33%. MLA M. Rajagopalan received a performance score of 72.37 per cent.
• Irikkur: The UDF leads by 16.33% with a 51.98% vote share against the LDF’s 35.65%. The BJP is expected to poll 12.37%. MLA Saju Joseph is credited with a performance score of 72.63 per cent.
• Kuthuparamba: The LDF is projected to lead by 10.78%, polling 46.24% against the UDF’s 39.47%. The BJP holds a 14.29% vote share in this seat. MLA K.P. Mohanan received a performance score of 62.26 per cent.
• Mattannur: The LDF maintains a dominant 35.16% lead, with 62.19% vote share compared to the UDF’s 27.03%. The BJP share stands at 10.78%. MLA K.K. Shailaja recorded a performance score of 77.48 per cent.
• Mananthavady (ST): The LDF leads by 12.25%, polling 51.71% against the UDF’s 39.46%. The BJP is projected to secure 8.83% of the vote. MLA O.R. Kelu received a performance score of 73.9 per cent.
• Vadakara: The survey shows a 5.47% lead for the UDF, polling 47.77% against the LDF’s 41.8%. The BJP vote share is recorded at 10.43%. Sitting MLA K.K. Rema received a performance score of 69.75 per cent.
• Balussery (SC): The LDF leads by 10.78% with a 49.46% vote share compared to the UDF’s 38.68%. The BJP is expected to poll 11.86%. MLA K.M. Sachin Dev received a performance score of 59.85 per cent.
• Kozhikode South: The UDF leads by 7.86%, polling 47.59% against the LDF’s 39.73%. The BJP share in this constituency is 12.68%. MLA Ahamed Devarkovil received a performance score of 50.24 per cent.
• Koduvally: The UDF maintains a strong 17.96% lead, polling 56.76% against the LDF’s 38.8%. The BJP vote share is projected at 5.43%. MLA M.K. Muneer received a performance score of 53.7 per cent.

Malappuram and Palakkad Region

• Kondotty: The UDF leads by 14.5% with a 54.5% vote share against the LDF’s 40%. The BJP is projected to hold 5.5% of the vote. MLA T.V. Ibrahim received a performance score of 71.27 per cent.
• Ernad: The UDF has a 12.3% lead, polling 53.1% compared to the LDF’s 40.8%. The BJP share is recorded at 6.10%. MLA P.K. Basheer received a performance score of 71.89 per cent.
• Vallikkunnu: The UDF leads by 15.01%, polling 55.27% against the LDF’s 40.26%. The BJP vote share stands at 4.47%. Sitting MLA P. Abdul Hameed received a performance score of 71.08 per cent.
• Tanur: The LDF holds a narrow 4% lead, polling 48.36% against the UDF’s 44.36%. The BJP is projected to poll 7.28%. MLA V. Abdurahiman received a performance score of 68.64 per cent.
• Kongad: The LDF leads by 11.34%, securing 49.11% of the vote against the UDF’s 37.77%. The BJP vote share is recorded at 13.12%. MLA K. Shanthakumari recorded a performance score of 68.73 per cent.
• Nenmara: The LDF holds a slight lead of 3.55%, polling 48.15% against the UDF’s 44.6%. The BJP share in this seat is 7.25%. MLA K. Babu received a performance score of 66.7 per cent.

Thrissur and Central Kerala

• Manalur: The UDF holds a 4.94% lead, polling 39.6% against the LDF’s 34.66%. The NDA secures a significant 25.74% vote share. MLA Murali Perunelly (LDF) received a performance score of 48.16 per cent.
• Guruvayoor: The LDF leads by 7.88%, securing 45.81% of the vote compared to the UDF’s 37.93%. The NDA share stands at 16.26%. MLA N.K. Akbar (LDF) received a performance score of 64.47 per cent.
• Chelakkara: The LDF maintains a strong 13.27% advantage (LDF 47.5% vs. UDF 34.23%). The NDA holds 18.27% of the projected vote. MLA U.R. Pradeep (LDF) received a score of 74.34 per cent.
• Angamaly: The UDF is projected to lead by 12.26%, polling 50.83% against the LDF’s 38.57%. the NDA vote share is 10.6%. MLA Roji M. John (UDF) received a performance score of 69.5 per cent.
• Muvattupuzha: The UDF holds an 8.47% lead (UDF 47.54% vs. LDF 39.07%). The NDA is expected to poll 13.39%. MLA Mathew Kuzhalnadan (UDF) received a score of 61.92 per cent.
• Kothamangalam: This is categorised as a “Tight Fight” with the LDF holding a narrow 1% lead (LDF 44.5% vs. UDF 43.5%). The NDA secures 12% of the vote share. MLA Antony John (LDF) received a performance score of 68.75 per cent.

Kottayam and Alappuzha

• Kottayam: The UDF leads by 12.19%, polling 51.46% against the LDF’s 39.27%. The NDA share is 9.27%. MLA Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan (UDF) received a score of 74.97 per cent.
• Poonjar: This seat is a “Tight Fight” with the LDF holding a slim 1.38% lead. The projected vote shares are LDF 38.59%, UDF 37.21%, and NDA 24.2%. MLA Sebastian Kulathunkal (LDF) earned a performance score of 63.33 per cent.
• Changanassery: The LDF holds a 4.2% lead, polling 46.7% compared to the UDF’s 42.5%. The NDA is projected to secure 10.8%. MLA Job Michael (LDF) received a score of 70.63 per cent.
• Cherthala: The LDF leads by 8.3% (LDF 48.71% vs. UDF 40.41%). The NDA share stands at 10.88%. MLA P. Prasad (LDF) received a performance score of 75.27 per cent.
• Kayamkulam: The LDF is projected to lead by 6.27%, polling 41.46% against the UDF’s 35.19%. Notably, the NDA has a strong presence here with 23.35%. MLA U. Prathibha (LDF) received a performance score of 68.43 per cent.

Pathanamthitta and Kollam

• Thiruvalla: The UDF holds a 6.82% lead with 44.90% of the vote share compared to the LDF’s 38.08%. The NDA is expected to secure a significant 17.02% share. MLA Mathew T. Thomas (LDF) received a performance score of 51.63 per cent.
• Karunagappally: This constituency represents one of the strongest leads for the UDF in the southern region at 24.33% (UDF 58.68% vs. LDF 34.35%). The NDA share is lower here at 6.97%. MLA C.R. Mahesh (UDF) received a performance score of 78.06 per cent.
• Chathannur: The LDF maintains a comfortable 11.44% lead, polling 41.79% against the UDF’s 27.86%. Notably, this seat features a strong three-way split, with the NDA projected to poll 30.35%, outperforming the UDF for second place. MLA G.S. Jayalal (LDF) received a score of 58.45 per cent.
• Kottarakkara: In Kottarakkara, the LDF holds the lead with 47.80% support, followed by the UDF with 42.46%, while the NDA has 10.73%. Finance Minister K.N. Balagopal has recorded a score of 67.60.

Thiruvananthapuram Region

• Varkala: The LDF is in a strong position with a 10.89% lead (LDF 44.55% vs UDF 33.66%). The NDA holds a substantial 21.79% of the projected vote. MLA V. Joy (LDF) received a performance score of 76.84 per cent.
• Chirayinkeezhu: The LDF holds an 11.83% advantage, polling 41.38% against the UDF’s 29.06%. The NDA follows closely behind the UDF with 29.56%. MLA V. Sasi (LDF) received a score of 52.18 per cent.
• Vattiyoorkavu: The survey projects a 6.93% lead for the LDF (38.62% vs. UDF 31.69%), while the NDA maintains a strong presence with 29.69%. MLA V.K. Prasanth (LDF) remains one of the most popular young leaders with a performance rating of 76.67 per cent.
• Kovalam: Defying the LDF trend in the capital’s suburbs, the UDF holds a major 17.09% lead (52.14% vs. LDF 35.05%), with the NDA at 12.81%. MLA M. Vincent (UDF) received a performance score of 73.51 per cent.

(On Friday, we also looked into 35 other constituencies… Read it here)