‘Disappearing’ votes: Who will they favour in Kerala elections?
Newly released SIR list in the state shows a significant drop in registered voters in key constituencies across South-Central Kerala, including Thiruvananthapuram, Idukki, Kottayam, Ernakulam, and Thrissur. Unlike the continuous increase in voter numbers in these districts during the 2016, 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the latest revision ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections shows a decline of 7,000 to 44,000 voters in these constituencies. The pressing question now is: which party will benefit from these “disappearing” votes?
Unexpected drop in Thiruvananthapuram
In the Thiruvananthapuram district, constituencies including Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram, Nemom, Parassala, Kovalam, and Neyyattinkara saw a total decline of 145,860 voters.
| Constituency | 2024 voters | 2026 voters | decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thiruvananthapuram | 202,503 | 158,545 | -43,958 |
| Vattiyoorkavu | 203,757 | 165,272 | -38,485 |
| Nemom | 205,113 | 171,178 | -33,935 |
| Kazhakkoottam | 194,043 | 164,561 | -29,482 |
Historically, LDF held strong majorities in constituencies like Kazhakkoottam, Neyyattinkara, Varkala, Attingal, and Parassala in the 2016 Assembly elections, with Nemom shifting from BJP in 2016 to LDF in 2021 under V. Sivankutty. Only Kovalam (M. Vincent) remained favourable to UDF. Congress was pushed to third place in most constituencies. Apart from Nemom, where BJP finished second, the party also emerged as the runner-up in Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkavu, and Attingal.
Lok Sabha shifts and BJP surge
In the Lok Sabha elections, left-leaning voters in Assembly constituencies favoured LDF, but in Thiruvananthapuram, UDF candidate Shashi Tharoor won, although the party’s overall vote share decreased sharply between 2019 and 2024 in all constituencies.
Constituencies that recorded a decline in UDF votes
| Parassala | 10,918 |
| Kovalam | 9,179 |
| Thiruvananthapuram | 8,781 |
| Vattiyoorkavu | 8,682 |
| Neyyattinkara | 8,085 |
| Nemom | 7,371 |
| Kazhakkoottam | 7,362 |
BJP's gains appear to have absorbed much of the UDF’s lost votes. For example, Kovalam (+6,284 votes) and Kazhakkoottam (+4,965 votes). Voter list revisions further decreased the voter numbers in these constituencies (Kovalam -18,488, Kazhakkoottam -29,482). Despite LDF holding majorities in the Assembly, BJP’s gains at the Lok Sabha level reflected the shift of UDF votes.
Thrissur: Big changes
Following the last Lok Sabha elections, NDA/BJP saw a significant surge in Thrissur. Constituencies with major voter reductions include Ollur (-25,852) and Thrissur (-28,020). Others, such as Wadakkanchery (-15,435), Nattika (-15,278), Chalakudy (-14,932), and Puthukkad (-12,652) also recorded large drops. Only Kaipamangalam(+4,891) and Chelakkara (+1,673) saw increases.
| Constituency | Voters in 2024 | Voters in 2026 | Decrease in Voters |
| Kodungallur | 192,501 | 187,212 | 5,289 |
| Chalakudy | 194,140 | 179,208 | 14,932 |
| Ollur | 214,247 | 188,395 | 25,852 |
| Wadakkanchery | 217,221 | 201,786 | 15,435 |
| Nattika | 218,705 | 203,427 | 15,278 |
| Puthukkad | 205,029 | 192,377 | 12,652 |
| Thrissur | 189,245 | 161,225 | 28,020 |
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP gained significant votes in Manalur (+61,196), Nattika (+66,854), Irinjalakuda (+59,515), Puthukkad (+62,635), and Ollur (+58,996), marking a 15,000–20,000 vote increase compared to 2019. Meanwhile, Congress lost an average of 10,000–15,000 votes per constituency. LDF largely retained its vote base, while UDF's vote losses formed the basis of BJP’s victories.
| Constituency | Party | Votes in 2019 | Votes in 2024 |
| Manalur | BJP | 44,765 | 61,196 |
| CPM | 44,695 | 53,183 | |
| Congress | 63,420 | 50,897 | |
| Nattika | BJP | 48,171 | 66,854 |
| CPM | 50,131 | 52,909 | |
| Congress | 52,558 | 38,195 | |
| Irinjalakuda | BJP | 42,857 | 59,515 |
| CPM | 46,091 | 45,022 | |
| Congress | 57,481 | 46,499 | |
| Puthukkad | BJP | 46,410 | 62,635 |
| CPI | 51,006 | 49,943 | |
| Congress | 56,848 | 42,715 | |
| Ollur | BJP | 39,594 | 58,996 |
| CPM | 47,372 | 48,633 | |
| Congress | 63,406 | 47,639 | |
| Guruvayur | BJP | 33,967 | 45,049 |
| CPM | 44,695 | 50,519 | |
| Congress | 65,160 | 57,925 |
Ernakulam: Major decline
In Ernakulam, despite a rising voter count in 2024, LDF lost significant urban support. The new voter list shows a drop of 28,829 voters across constituencies.
| Tripunithura | 22,892 |
| Paravur | 7,137 |
Vypin | 7,048 |
| Kalamassery | 4,750 |
| Aluva | 4,578 |
The presence of the Twenty-20 party allied with the BJP in constituencies like Kunnathunad (42,701 votes in 2021) may shift the dynamics further, creating triangular contests in several Ernakulam seats.
| Constituency | UDF Votes | LDF Votes | BJP Votes | Twenty-20 Votes |
| Kunnathunad | 49,636 | 52,351 | 7,218 | 42,701 |
| Perumbavoor | 53,484 | 50,585 | 15,135 | 20,536 |
| Kochi | 40,553 | 54,632 | 10,991 | 19,676 |
Vypin | 45,657 | 53,858 | 13,540 | 16,707 |
| Thrikkakara | 59,839 | 45,510 | 15,483 | 13,897 |
| Ernakulam | 45,930 | 34,960 | 16,043 | 10,634 |
| Kothamangalam | 57,629 | 64,234 | 7,978 | 13,535 |
Kottayam & Idukki: Highland shifts
In Kottayam, the voter decrease ranges from 6,000 to 15,000 per constituency, potentially affecting all three fronts in 2026.
Key constituencies with reduced majorities in 2021:
| Kaduthuruthy | Mons Joseph | 4,256 | 11,445 |
| Changanassery | Adv. Job Michael | 6,059 | 9,736 |
| Puthupally | Oommen Chandy | 9,044 | 9,408 |
| Kanjirappally | Dr. N. Jayaraj | 13,703 | 10,398 |
| Ettumanoor | V.N. Vasavan (LDF) | 14,303 | 10,052 |
In 2019, the Pala constituency delivered 66,971 votes to the UDF. After Jose K. Mani shifted to LDF, UDF votes dropped to 52,295 in 2024, a loss of 14,676 votes. Similar losses occurred in Kaduthuruthy (-14,047).
Idukki: Voter decline
In Idukki, constituencies including Devikulam, Udumbanchol, Thodupuzha, Idukki, and Peerumedu saw a decline of ~80,542 voters.
| Devikulam | 166,678 | 141,206 | -25,472 |
| Peerumedu | 176,767 | 155,273 | -21,494 |
| Udumbanchol | 169,950 | 149,111 | -20,839 |
| Idukki | 186,522 | 166,497 | -20,025 |
| Thodupuzha | 191,618 | 187,167 | -4,451 |
Traditionally, Devikulam and Udumbanchol were LDF strongholds, while Thodupuzha supported UDF (PJ Joseph). However, Lok Sabha trends show a shift, with UDF losing substantial votes between 2019 and 2024.
| Idukki | 12,870 |
| Peerumedu | 11,834 |
| Thodupuzha | 9,442 |
| Moovattupuzha | 8,818 |
| Kothamangalam | 4,551 |
NDA influence: BJP-led NDA increased votes in Peerumedu (+2,234) and Thodupuzha (+1,190), offsetting some UDF losses. LDF MLAs retained Assembly majorities despite voter reductions.